Supergirl is now officially on tracking, and the first number has the DC Studios movie looking at a $55 million-plus domestic opening.
According to Deadline, Warner Bros. and DC Studios’ Supergirl arrived on three-week tracking Thursday morning with an outlook of $55M+ when it opens in theaters on June 26.
Gunn’s Superman opened to over $125M last summer. Interestingly enough, The Flash opened to $55M back in 2023 before going on to make less than $300M.
The number comes just after tickets went on sale for the Craig Gillespie-directed movie, which stars House of the Dragon actress Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El. For release date, full cast, box office tracking, and every update, see our full Supergirl movie guide.
Deadline also notes the campaign is still getting started, with the latest trailer putting a lot of focus on Jason Momoa’s Lobo, the new DCU antihero role from the former Aquaman star.
Supergirl Tracking Opens At $55M+
The $55M+ tracking number puts Supergirl right in the middle of the range we previously covered, where early estimates had the movie opening as low as $47 million or as high as $65 million domestically.
As we previously reported, those earlier estimates had the full domestic run landing between $107 million and $181 million.
The low end of that opening range would put Supergirl in the same conversation as The Marvels, which opened to $46.1 million in the U.S. back in 2023 and became one of Marvel’s biggest box office disappointments.
Deadline’s number is better than the worst-case scenario, but it is still not exactly a massive launch for the first DCU movie after James Gunn’s Superman.
Deadline says unaided awareness is pretty even among men and women under and over 25, and overall unaided awareness is currently higher than Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu, Thunderbolts*, and Shazam!.
The catch is Deadline also notes the tracking has not fully taken presales into account yet, so the next couple of weeks should give a better idea of whether the interest is actually turning into ticket sales.
Fan Interest Has Already Been A Concern
The awareness number is the interesting part, because awareness hasn’t really been the main problem.
Around ten days ago, we reported that Supergirl was holding at 53% awareness on The Quorum, but interest had dropped from 48% to 46%.
So people know the movie exists. The bigger question is whether enough of them actually want to see it in theaters.
The movie has already gone through fan backlash, soft ticket chatter, and mixed online reaction to the marketing. The official accounts have also leaned into the recent AMC app crash claim, even as Community Notes and fans pointed out the app issue did not appear to prove huge demand for Supergirl tickets.
Deadline’s $55M+ number gives Warner Bros. something positive to work with, but it doesn’t erase the concern that interest needs to climb fast if Supergirl is going to have strong legs after opening weekend.
The Box Office Math Still Needs To Work
The other issue is the breakeven number.
As we recently covered, Deadline reported Supergirl cost $175 million net before global P&A and put the breakeven point at $315 million worldwide.
The $315 million figure raised questions because another recent estimate had Supergirl needing around $425 million worldwide to be considered a win, especially once marketing costs are factored in.
Either way, a $55M+ domestic opening means Supergirl likely needs a solid international performance and strong holds after opening weekend.
The summer schedule is not making things easy. Toy Story 5 opens one week before Supergirl, while more family competition arrives shortly after. Supergirl also has to prove the DCU can expand beyond Superman without needing Superman himself to carry the box office.
The good news for Warner Bros. is that $55M+ is not a disaster. The bad news is that it still puts Supergirl under real pressure.
If the final opening comes in closer to $65 million, DC Studios can sell that as a decent launch. If it slips closer to $47 million, the comparisons to The Marvels are going to get a lot louder.
For a comparison, Mortal Kombat II opened to $38.5M, The Mandalorian & Grogu to $81.6M, and this weekend’s Masters of the Universe is estimated to open around $30M-$40M.
Supergirl Release Info
Supergirl opens in theaters on June 26, 2026.
The film is directed by Craig Gillespie and is based on Tom King and Bilquis Evely’s Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow comic book series.
Milly Alcock stars as Kara Zor-El, with Jason Momoa as Lobo. The cast also includes Matthias Schoenaerts as Krem of the Yellow Hills, Eve Ridley as Ruthye Marye Knoll, David Krumholtz as Zor-El, Emily Beecham as Alura In-Ze, and David Corenswet is also expected to appear as Superman.
The story follows Kara on a cosmic revenge mission after she crosses paths with Ruthye, a young alien girl hunting the man who killed her father. Along the way, Kara gets pulled into a darker, more brutal adventure than the usual Superman-style hero story.
With tracking now at $55M+, Supergirl is officially in the box office spotlight. The next test is whether awareness turns into real ticket sales.
