Supergirl could be heading toward the exact worst-case box-office scenario I previously warned about.
The first long-range tracking numbers are now out, and they are not great for DC Studios, Warner Bros., or James Gunnâs new DCU.
According to new estimates, Supergirl is currently tracking for a $47 million to $65 million domestic opening weekend. The full domestic run is projected to land only between $107 million and $181 million.
For a movie reportedly carrying a budget of around $165 million to $170 million, with marketing on top of that, those numbers put Supergirl in a difficult position before it even opens.
Supergirl Tracking Points To A Soft Opening
The low end of the Supergirl tracking is the big concern.
A $47 million opening would put the movie right in The Marvels range, the MCU’s worst-performing movie of all time. The Marvels opened low, collapsed fast, and finished with only $206 million worldwide.
While Supergirl does not have to open like Superman to be considered a win, it still needs enough momentum to reach a respectable worldwide total.
A soft domestic opening makes it that much harder, especially with the movie arriving in a crowded summer window.
Toy Story 5 opens the week before Supergirl. Minions & Monsters follows right after. The live-action Moana remake also arrives shortly after that.
So Supergirl is not only dealing with DC fan skepticism. It is also fighting for family and general audience attention against bigger brands.
The $425 Million Target Already Looked Like Break-Even
This follows the previous Puck News report that said Supergirl needs around $425 million worldwide to be viewed as âgood enoughâ at the box office.
The budget is estimated at around $165-$170 million.
Using the usual 2.5x rule, that $425 million number looks less like a major success target and more like the rough break-even point. So, Puck News is saying WB feels Supergirl is “good enough” as long as it doesn’t lose money.
The problem is the new tracking does not make $425 million look easy.
If Supergirl finishes around $107 million domestic, the international box office would have to do a lot of heavy lifting.
If overseas numbers do not show up – they didn’t for Gunn’s Superman – the movie could land much closer to $200 million worldwide than $425 million.
That is where the worst-case scenario comes in.
Supergirl Could Lose Big If It Lands Near $200 Million
I previously noted that Supergirl could lose as much as $200 million depending on its final budget, marketing spend, and worldwide box office.
The new tracking keeps that possibility alive.
If Supergirl only makes around $200 million worldwide, that would be far below the reported $425 million target.
It would also put another major question mark over James Gunnâs DCU after Superman underperformed compared to what Warner Bros. likely wanted from its big reboot launch.
Superman finished with over $600 million worldwide, which sounds solid on paper, but recent reports have made it clear Gunn’s Superman was not viewed as a complete home run. Supergirl was supposed to help prove the new DCU could expand beyond Superman.
A strikeout for Supergirl would be a complete disaster for Gunn, especially given questions about his future at DC amid the Paramount-WBD merger.
The Backlash Is Not Helping
The new box office tracking (via Box Office Theory) also follows the recent Supergirl backlash, which has not helped the movieâs momentum.
As we previously covered, The Quorum tracking shared via Puck News had Supergirl holding at 53% awareness, but interest dropped from 48% to 46%.
The drop came after Milly Alcock drew heat for comments about fans, trolls, and online criticism, with some fans comparing the situation to the backlash surrounding Brie Larson and Rachel Zegler.
She’s also been looked at as attacking Christians, which isn’t the first time Gunn’s DCU Gunn has done that.
DC Studios co-head Peter Safran publicly backed Alcock, which is not a great look, with interest already moving in the wrong direction.
Supergirl Opens June 26
Supergirl opens June 26, 2026, with Milly Alcock starring as Kara Zor-El. Craig Gillespie directs from a script by Ana Nogueira. The cast also includes Matthias Schoenaerts, Eve Ridley, David Krumholtz, Emily Beecham, and Jason Momoa as Lobo.
The movie is the second theatrical installment in James Gunn and Peter Safranâs new DCU following Superman.
