The Supergirl box office projections just hit another new low, and the bigger problem is the movie may not even open at #1.
Box Office Pro‘s latest Long Range Forecast now pegs Supergirl for a domestic opening weekend of $45 million to $55 million when it hits theaters June 26.
That $45 million floor is the lowest projection yet, and it’s the second major tracking outlet to land below the figures we’ve been reporting.
The Box Office Slide Is Now Hard To Ignore
This isn’t one analyst’s outlier anymore. We recently covered Box Office Theory cutting its forecast to a $51 million opening, tracking below DC titles like The Flash. Now Box Office Pro‘s range reinforces it, with a floor even lower.
Per Box Office Pro, that $45M–$55M range puts Supergirl below WB’s previous DC entries Aquaman ($67.8 million opening) and Black Adam ($67 million), and roughly in line with — possibly just ahead of — 2023’s The Flash ($55 million).
The forecast does expect it to top 2024’s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($26.3 million), a comparison worth noting since that was also a female-led, WB action-IP spinoff. The Marvels also opened to $46.1M in 2023, the lowest-grossing movie of all time.
For context, this is a film arriving a year after David Corenswet’s Superman, which opened to $125 million on its way to $354.2 million domestic. Supergirl‘s entire projected opening is a fraction of that debut.
Toy Story 5 Could Steal Supergirl’s Opening Weekend
Here’s the part that stings most: Supergirl isn’t just tracking low, it’s tracking to lose its own opening weekend to a movie that’s already been in theaters for a week.
Pixar’s Toy Story 5 opens June 19, one week ahead of Supergirl, and it’s tracking for a massive debut, around $160 million per Puck News, and as high as $185 million per Box Office Pro. That means its second weekend lands on June 26–28, the exact frame Supergirl is opening in.
The math isn’t kind to Kara. Toy Story 4 dropped only about 50% in its second weekend. Apply that to a $160 million start and Toy Story 5 pulls in roughly $80 million the same weekend Supergirl debuts. Even a steeper hold doesn’t save the matchup:
- A 50% drop → about $80 million
- A 60% drop → about $64 million
- A 65% drop → about $56 million
And the early word suggests Toy Story 5 won’t be fading fast. First reactions out of the premiere have called it a home run, which points to the kind of strong word of mouth that keeps a film’s second-weekend hold on the higher end, bad news for anything opening against it.
In other words, even if Toy Story 5 falls a brutal 65% in weekend two, its second-weekend total still edges out Supergirl‘s entire projected opening.
Barring a major surprise, Supergirl is looking at a #2 debut behind a Pixar sequel on its second lap.
The Warning Signs Keep Piling Up
The falling box office estimate doesn’t exist in a vacuum.
It lines up with the audience data showing interest stuck flat while awareness climbs, a marketing push fans say they can barely find, and a movie that’s been heavily reworked in post, trimmed by some 25 minutes while adding more Superman. Every signal we’ve tracked has been pointing the same way.
Now Supergirl Needs Strong Legs
These remain projections, and an opening number is only half the story.
As Box Office Pro notes, the bigger variable is Supergirl‘s multiplier, how it legs out after opening weekend.
Aquaman turned its opening into nearly a 5x domestic run on strong word of mouth. Black Adam managed only about 2.5x.
If Supergirl opens around $50 million and plays more like Black Adam, the total domestic picture gets grim fast, which loops right back to the break-even questions hanging over the film.
Strong reviews or a positive opening-night reaction could still push the number up. But with the estimates dropping rather than climbing this close to release — and Toy Story 5 sitting on top of the weekend — the trend isn’t the one DC Studios wanted heading into June 26.
Supergirl opens in theaters June 26.
