UPDATE — June 19: The first hard numbers back the projection. Toy Story 5 is tracking for a franchise-record preview night of roughly $13M–$14M — the biggest previews of 2026 so far, and above Toy Story 4’s 2019 franchise record. With a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score and $25M in advance sales, the $140M+ opening looks secure, which only firms up the second-weekend math against Supergirl.
There’s a fresh Toy Story 5 box office number on the board, and it sets up a problem for Supergirl a week later.
Deadline‘s box office preview pegs Toy Story 5 for a domestic opening of around $140 million when it hits 4,425 theaters June 19, on its way to a franchise-record $275 million worldwide debut.
That domestic figure is a slight trim from earlier $150M tracking, with the report tying the move to presales and a Juneteenth-holiday Friday that scrambles the usual weekend shape.
Box Office Pro Has It Even Higher
And $140 million may be the floor. Box Office Pro still has Toy Story 5 tracking in the $165 million to $185 million range domestically,m meaningfully above Deadline‘s figure.
So the spread on Pixar’s fifthquel runs from roughly $140 million on the low end to $185 million on the high end. As we’ll lay out, even the bottom of that range matters for the June 26 frame.
Why The Number Matters For Supergirl
Toy Story 5 opens June 19, one week ahead of Supergirl. That puts Pixar’s second weekend on June 26–28, the exact frame in which Supergirl opens.
And across the entire $140M–$185M tracking range, Toy Story 5‘s second weekend still clears Supergirl‘s projected $45M–$55M opening, even on a steep 60% drop:
- $140M open (Deadline): ~$70M on a 50% drop, ~$56M on a 60% drop
- $165M open (Box Office Pro): ~$82M / ~$66M
- $185M open (Box Office Pro high): ~$92M / ~$74M
And 60% may be pessimistic for a Pixar title sitting at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, as Inside Out 2 dropped less than 35% in its second weekend. The fuller breakdown of that head-to-head, and what it means for where Supergirl finishes opening weekend, is in our main matchup piece here.
The short version: whichever Toy Story 5 number you trust, it lands ahead of Supergirl‘s entire openin, which lines up with every other warning sign we’ve tracked, from softening projections to a marketing push fans say they can’t find.
Toy Story 5 opens June 19. Supergirl opens June 26.
