Now the betting markets have weighed in on Supergirl‘s opening weekend, and the money is landing right where the tracking already pointed.
On Polymarket, the most-backed outcome is a soft, sub-$52 million debut, and the line has been sliding further in that direction since the market opened.
For a film DC Studios is positioning as a summer tentpole, that’s not where you want the smart-ish money sitting.
What The Polymarket Odds Show
The market is structured as a series of separate yes/no threshold bets rather than one clean distribution, so the percentages don’t add up to 100, each one is its own wager on whether the opening clears a given line.
Read as shape rather than a tidy forecast, the picture is lopsided to the downside: the lowest bucket is the favorite, and the high end is priced as a long shot.
Polymarket — “Supergirl” Opening Weekend Box Office (as of 8pm ET, June 18, 2026):
Under $52M — 62%
$52–58M — 16%
$58–64M — 6%
$64–70M — 10%
Over $70M — 8%Odds move with trading; figures above are a snapshot. Total market volume was roughly $160 at the time of writing.
The betting market is sending a clear message: expectations are sliding.
When we first published this article, bettors gave a $70 million-plus opening just a 5% chance, while the sub-$52 million outcome has climbed since the market went live, opening in the low 50s and ticking up into the high 50s as more money came in.
The line isn’t just bearish on Supergirl, it’s getting more bearish as next week’s release approaches. The bearish odds line up with soft early ticket sales that came in worse than Black Widow.
A Vibe Check, Not A Model
The important context: this is a thin market, as the listing just went live, with total volume closing in at around $1000, but most of it is concentrated in that top bucket.
Bettors can bet as little as around a dollar, so this is potentially hundreds of people having already placed a wager.
We’ll update the numbers as the listing continues.
Update: With more money added to the pool, the majority of the money still sits under $52M, and the over $70M sits at 8%.
It Lines Up With The Tracking
What it does do is line up with the professional tracking, which has Supergirl opening in the $45–55 million range, with some models slotting it below The Flash.
Polymarket’s most-backed sub-$52 million outcome sits at or under the floor of that range, as the bettors aren’t just agreeing with the projections, they’re leaning toward the pessimistic end of them.
What would have been interesting is if Polymarket had numbers below that range.
It also sharpens the matchup problem. Supergirl opens June 26, the same weekend Toy Story 5 plays its second frame, and even on the most conservative Toy Story 5 tracking, Pixar’s hold is projected to top Supergirl‘s entire opening.
A sub-$52 million bow wouldn’t just be a quiet number in a vacuum; it would mean losing the weekend to a movie that’s already been in theaters a week.
The softening Supergirl outlook also now has a downstream signal, with Clayface quietly dropping its IMAX billing a week before Supergirl’s IMAX-inclusive release.
Supergirl opens June 26. Read our Supergirl 2026 guide for more on the box office.
