The latest Supergirl tracking is in via Puck and The Quorum, and Warner Bros. finally has one good number to point to.
“Awareness” jumped big. The catch is everything else.
While “Interest” rose too, it wasn’t from a strong place, and the box office forecasts still are not climbing. They are moving in the opposite direction.
The Quorum uses audience surveys to track how many people know about upcoming movies and how many are interested in seeing them. For Supergirl, the new data says Warner Bros. solved one problem: people now know the movie exists. The harder part, getting enough of them to care, is still not solved.
Supergirl Awareness Finally Spikes
Days before release, Supergirl posted an Awareness score of 69%, up 13 points from the prior reading.
According to The Quorum, that was the single biggest two-week awareness jump of any title on the board, ahead of every other summer release being tracked.
Credit where it is due, that is a real win.
It is also easy to see what drove it. The past two weeks have been the heaviest stretch of Supergirl marketing yet, with the first reactions out of the premiere, the premiere itself, using David Corenswet as Superman, brand tie-ins like the Jason Momoa Lobo playlist, TV spots, and even the backlash around Milly Alcock’s comments.
All of that pushed the movie into the conversation.
It also lines up with what we flagged two weeks ago: Supergirl had a visibility problem, with fans saying they could not find the marketing. Since then, awareness has spiked. Warner Bros. appears to have closed that gap.
Interest Rose Too, But The Base Is Still Weak
Interest also moved in the right direction, up 5 points to 51%, the largest two-week interest gain of any title on the board.
So yes, both Supergirl numbers went up. No other tracked movie gained more interest over the same stretch.
The problem is where Supergirl started from.
A 51% interest score is still weak. It trails Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 67% and Minions & Monsters at 53%, and sits barely ahead of Moana at 49%.
It also looks soft next to the movie it has to share the marketplace with. Two weeks before its own release, Toy Story 5 was tracking much higher at 64% interest (assumed even higher the week of release). The timing is the problem: Toy Story 5’s second weekend lands right on top of Supergirl’s debut, and we already flagged the Pixar sequel as a threat to take the No. 1 spot.
Here is the issue: awareness jumped 13 points, while interest rose only 5 points. More people know Supergirl exists, but the buy-a-ticket number is not moving at the same speed.
The Quorum’s own read lands in the same place. It notes the opening-weekend floor for superhero films has settled around $50 million (fitting with Deadline’s recent downgrade, more on that below), and that Supergirl “will hope to clear that bar.”
Even with the best awareness jump on the board and the biggest interest gain, analysts are still pinning Supergirl near the floor, not comfortably above it.
Better Than Recent Bombs Is Still A Low Bar
To be fair, Supergirl is not in the worst possible shape.
Its two-week-out numbers are stronger than the comparable readings we tracked heading into recent box office disappointments like Mortal Kombat II, Masters of the Universe, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu.
The problem is what happened to those movies.
Mortal Kombat II bombed. Masters of the Universe cratered. The Mandalorian and Grogu opened above $100 million and still became the lowest-grossing live-action Star Wars movie ever.
So “better than the bombs” is not a victory lap. It is a low bar, and it has not stopped the Supergirl projections from sliding.
The Forecasts Still Went The Wrong Way
This is where the awareness spike runs into the box office problem. Even as The Quorum numbers improved, the forecasts went down.
The lowest projections now sit around $39 million, and Deadline just trimmed its own estimate from a clean $55 million-plus down to a $50M-$55M range.
So, as Supergirl heads into its June 26 opening, it has at least one real bright spot: Warner Bros. has gotten more people to know about the movie.
But knowing a movie exists and paying to see it are two different things. Right now, only one of those numbers is moving the way Warner Bros. needs.
