The Supergirl box office number keeps moving in one direction — down — and the latest tracking now puts a figure on the table that would have been unthinkable when the projections started.
Box Office Theory’s latest read has a Supergirl opening weekend “bordering around $40 million” now in play. Update: The outlet has a lower estimate at $39M.
That’s notable for one big reason: it’s below the $45 million floor of the $45M–$55M range that recent tracking had settled on, and it’s a long way from where this started.
Watch The Number Fall
Rewind to the early projections.
When tracking first opened, Deadline had Supergirl pegged for a debut in the $55 million-plus range. Since then, the number has only eroded:
- $55M+ — early Deadline tracking
- $51M — Box Office Theory’s cut to below The Flash territory
- $45M–$55M — the settled tracking range in recent weeks by Box Office Pro
- ~$39M — now on the table as a potential floor via Box Office Theory
That’s a steady slide from a mid-$50s opening toward the low $40s in a matter of weeks.
For a film DC Studios is positioning as a summer tentpole, the trend line is the story as much as any single number.
The Forecast Is Cautious, But The Number Is Still Falling
To be fair, Box Office Theory is not officially calling for a $39 million opening yet.
They’re keeping the forecast higher for now because the Juneteenth holiday weekend may be making short-term presales look softer than usual.
Translation: $39 million is now on the table, but they are not ready to say that’s where Supergirl is headed. Not yet.
Here’s the thing worth pointing out, though. If the holiday weekend were genuinely keeping audiences home, you’d expect it to show up across the board. It isn’t.
Toy Story 5 just set a franchise preview record with $17.5 million on Thursday night — the second-biggest animated preview ever — and is tracking for a $140 million-plus opening. Audiences are very clearly coming out for movies they want to see this weekend.
Different films, different audiences, sure. But it’s fair to ask how much a holiday is really suppressing demand when the movie opening into it is breaking records. The crowds are there.
The question is whether they show up for Supergirl a week later, and the falling tracking suggests the trackers are increasingly unsure.
What To Watch As Release Nears
This is the part that’ll be telling.
Box Office Theory says final forecasts come next week, and Deadline and the other trades will firm up their numbers as Supergirl‘s June 26 opening approaches.
The open question: do the trades stand by their higher figures, or do they quietly walk them down toward the $40M floor as the data hardens?
Trades tend to hold optimistic numbers as long as they can and adjust late, so a quiet revision in the final days before release would tell its own story. We’ll be tracking which way they break.
Either way, a sub-$45M opening lines up with everything else pointing the same direction: a smaller theater count than Superman, bearish betting markets, and a June 26 frame where Supergirl is fighting to win its own opening weekend against Toy Story 5‘s second weekend.
Supergirl opens June 26. For more on the box office reporting, plot and cast, read our Supergirl guide.
