UPDATE: The slide continued into release. Official preview numbers came in at $7.8 million per Deadline, with Supergirl now opening at the low end, around $40 million, and losing the weekend to Toy Story 5 exactly as we called. Full breakdown.
Last week, when we wrote that Supergirl might not win its own opening weekend, the idea got pushback.
A DC tentpole, losing the No. 1 spot in its debut frame? Now the trades are saying it outright.
Per Deadline: “This weekend, there’s no question about it: Toy Story 5 will be No. 1 in its second frame, towering above Warner Bros/DC Studio’s Supergirl which will open to give or take $50M.
When the trade itself says “no question,” the debate is over.
The Numbers Aren’t Close
Here’s the matchup.
Toy Story 5, coming off the biggest opening of 2026, is projected to ease just 40% to 45% in its second weekend for a Friday-to-Sunday between $88 million and $96 million.
Supergirl, meanwhile, is tracking to open to roughly $50 million. You will also notice that Deadline recently downgraded its estimates from $55M+ to $50M-$55M, and now to”give or take $50M.”
That’s not a photo finish. By the current projections, Toy Story 5‘s second weekend is on pace to nearly double Supergirl‘s opening. A four-week-old animated sequel is set to outgross a brand-new superhero tentpole on its launch weekend, in the same frame.
We Flagged This When It Was Still A Projection
The signals kept stacking.
Supergirl is opening in fewer theaters than Superman. Tracking slid toward a potential $39 million floor. And the latest awareness tracking showed the movie finally getting noticed, but not converting that into interest. It’s also looking like Supergirl will lose IMAX.
Every thread pointed the same way, and now the trade has put it in print.
The actual numbers settle it this weekend. Supergirl opens June 26. Read our Supergirl guide for more.
