Here’s a stat that says everything about where the Star Wars brand sits in 2026: Toy Story 5 is about to top the entire domestic run of The Mandalorian & Grogu — in a single weekend.
And Pixar did it spending a fraction of what Disney shelled out to sell the Star Wars movie.
One Weekend Vs. A Full Run
Per Deadline, Toy Story 5 is tracking for a $160 million–$170 million three-day opening after a $71 million Friday.
The Mandalorian & Grogu, five weekends into its run, sits at $171.8 million domestic total.
In other words, Toy Story 5‘s opening weekend alone is poised to come within a whisker of — or pass — everything the Star Wars film has earned domestically across more than a month in theaters.
To put a finer point on it: A24’s horror title Backrooms has now passed The Mandalorian & Grogu domestically too, sitting at roughly $175 million.
A Star Wars theatrical release is being out-grossed by an indie horror movie and lapped by a Pixar opening.
The easy defense is that The Mandalorian & Grogu is a spinoff, so of course it made less. But that excuse already fell apart with Rogue One, a spinoff with no episode number and no Skywalkers that still cleared a billion dollars in 2016.
When the brand was healthy, a spinoff was still an event. The Mandalorian & Grogu didn’t underperform because it’s a spinoff. It underperformed because it’s Star Wars in 2026.
Pixar Spent A Fraction To Do It
The marketing math makes it sting more. According to iSpot, Disney spent just $8.8 million on linear ad spend for Toy Story 5 — versus the nearly $29 million it poured into selling The Mandalorian & Grogu.
Pixar outspent more than three-to-one in the Star Wars film’s favor, and still buried its entire run in a weekend.
That’s the difference between a brand audiences show up for on instinct and one a studio has to push. Toy Story 5 didn’t need to be sold.
Per RelishMix, it rode 711.8 million in organic social reach and a major Taylor Swift assist into a franchise-record start. The Mandalorian & Grogu got the bigger ad budget and a smaller result.
The Bigger Picture For Star Wars
None of this is to knock The Mandalorian & Grogu as a movie, it’s a separate question whether the film is good.
But as a commercial signal, a sub-$175 million domestic run for a theatrical Star Wars release fits a pattern we’ve tracked all year.
This is the franchise that got knocked out of the No. 1 spot by Obsession, a horror original made for $750,000, in its second weekend, and is now getting lapped by a Pixar opening.
The brand no longer commands the automatic, must-see-it-opening-weekend turnout it once did.
As we laid out when Star Wars‘ audience collapse hit 85% from its peak, the box office is this franchise’s most honest focus group, and the focus group keeps shrinking. Toy Story 5 is simply the latest verdict, delivered in a single weekend.
Pixar, at least this weekend, clearly still commands that turnout. Toy Story 5 is in theaters now.
