Similar to DC's Batman vs. Superman, a lot of things have been expected from Marvel's The Avengers: Endgame, however, is the sequel to Infinity War coming up short?
While The Avengers: Endgame has been performing spectacularly at the box office, it's box office has actually slowed down compared to Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
As Endgame approaches its second weekend, Deadline is already spinning things that the flick will beat the second-weekend box office gross record held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Deadline, which is notorious for promoting and exaggerating Disney Marvel movies (see Captain Marvel), reports that The Avengers: Endgame scored $21.7M for its second Thursday and notes that Endgame is "expected to surpass Star Wars: The Force Awakens second weekend record of $149.2M." However, what Deadline fails to report is that the Thursday number is less than Star Wars: The Force Awakens second Thursday of over $27 million. Likewise, Star Wars: The Force Awakens also beats out The Avengers: Endgame every day this week except for the opening Sunday. It should be noted that Star Wars was released during a holiday break, so it could be possible that more of the audience shows up on the weekend, giving Endgame the edge over Star Wars for best second-weekend gross, but if the daily trend is anything to go by, The Avengers: Endgame may peter out, similar to DC's Batman vs. Superman.
Reasons I bring up Batman vs. Superman is because both movies are kind of a big mess, IMO. Following the release of The Avengers: Endgame, the writers and directors have publicly addressed fan concerns and questions of major plot holes. In addition, a lot of fans aren't happy with how certain characters have been handled and are confused by the questionable time travel element that Kevin Feige mandated take place. Batman vs. Superman had a similar reception where all kinds of characters were introduced and Superman died at the end after starring in only one previous movie, which didn't make too much sense -- again similar to how elements played out in Endgame.
As a result of Batman vs. Superman, the DCEU would be forever changed, so could the same happen to the MCU because of Feige's Endgame as well as Captain Marvel films? Feige is going in the opposite direction than the previous ten years of the MCU, which may or may not turn out well and is dependent on whether there are more zombie mom and pop "popcorn" fans than hardcore comic book fans. Feige and Disney are banking on the former. What is interesting about Zack Snyder's approach is that he went the hardcore route on one end, while Feige is going exactly the opposite. So instead of having a middle ground, are both roads leading to the same destination?
Getting back to the box office, in its second weekend, Batman vs. Superman dropped a whopping 69.1%. If The Avengers: Endgame sees something of a similar drop, it would put the sequel to Infinity War at around $107M. While I don't foresee that happening, Star Wars: The Force Awakens had a drop of only 39.8% for its second weekend. In order for The Avengers: Endgame to beat The Force Awakens' second-weekend box office gross of $149.2M, it needs to sustain a drop of 58% or less. Infinity War, a much better movie than Endgame, saw a 55.5% drop for its own second week, so it will be close.
Update: It is now estimated The Avengers: Endgame has a $44M second Friday box office gross, which is down 72% from a week ago. Estimates now peg its second-weekend box office to be anywhere from $137M-$177M, possibly less than Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Read more here.
Update #2: The second Friday estimates are now lower at $40,637,000, with a 74.2% drop, and now it is estimated to have a second opening weekend of $146.9M, less than Star Wars.
Here are the numbers:
The Avengers: Endgame opening weekend box office: $357,115,007.
-Second-weekend drop of 58% would equal $149,988,302.94 beating Star Wars (anything higher than a 58% drop means it won't beat the record held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens for best second-weekend opening).
Star Wars: The Force Awakens opening weekend: $247,966,675.
-Second-weekend drop of 39.8% gives it $149,202,860.
Batman vs. Superman opening weekend: $166,007,347.
-Second-weekend drop of 69.1% gives it $51,335,254.
Infinity War opening weekend: $257,698,183.
-Second-weekend drop of 55.5% gives it $114,774,810.