Supergirl‘s roughly $40 million opening is being framed as more than a box office flop. Nobody who saw it coming is surprised.
Puck‘s Matt Belloni says the weak debut comes at bad timing for James Gunn and Peter Safran, whose future running DC will be decided by David Ellison and the incoming Paramount regime.
With tracking sliding, reviews poor, and the movie losing its opening weekend to Toy Story 5, the result raises bigger questions about Warner Bros.’ DC slate and whether the new owner will keep Gunn and Safran in charge.
New York Premiere 06-22-26
Belloni Took The Under After Warner Bros. ‘Hid’ The Movie
Belloni gave his final box office call before the weekend and bet against Supergirl‘s own tracking:
Box office over/under: Warner Bros. hid Supergirl as long as it could, and now the tracking has weakened to the $48 million–$50 million range. I’ll take the under.
He was right. The movie came in around $40 million, under his line.
Note the word “hid,” and note where Belloni drops it: right next to the box office tracking. He doesn’t mean Warner Bros. buried the movie. It did the opposite, with a heavy trailer push, early premium screenings, an IMAX run, and a record promo-partner campaign worth $100 million in media value.
What Warner Bros. held back was the bad news. The friendlier first reactions went out about a week ahead to prop up presales, but the official reviews, the ones that left Supergirl at a rotten 57 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, didn’t land until Wednesday, two days before release and the same day as the first real screenings.
The softening box office tracking also stayed muted by the trades until it cratered at the eleventh hour, something we saw coming long prior.
A studio confident in a movie lets the verdict breathe early. Warner Bros. kept the reviews and the honest numbers compressed against the opening because it already knew what it had: soft presales, weak tracking, and reviews that were not going to help.
The Worst Case Is Now The Base Case
Weeks ago we also mapped out a worst-case scenario of a $200 million loss. After Friday, that is not the worst case anymore. It is the realistic one.
That $200 million loss scenario did not start with us. It traces back to Belloni and Scott Mendelson, who pegged Supergirl at $300 million to $350 million worldwide after seeing CinemaCon footage they described as lesser and IP milking. Then they buried it on their summer confidence list with Supergirl landing second to the bottom.
Deadline also put the break-even at $315 million worldwide, not counting marketing, on a now reported higher $186 million budget. The standard 2.5x rule pushes the target to $465 million.
A $40 million domestic start and an overseas launch that is looking like a massive disaster make those numbers a long climb, and a $200 million loss stops sounding pessimistic. That $300 million to $350 million worldwide box office is even looking questionable.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 22: (L-R) Craig Gillespie, Peter Safran, Milly Alcock and James Gunn attend the SUPERGIRL World Premiere on June 22, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images for Warner Bros. Pictures)
Belloni’s Real Point: Gunn And Safran Are On The Clock
Regarding James Gunn and Peter Safran, Belloni wrote:
Warners’ Mike and Pam reality check: Assuming the poorly received Supergirl underperforms this weekend, the timing isn’t great for James Gunn and Peter Safran, whose post-merger future running DC will likely soon be decided by David Ellison and the Paramount crew. It also highlights vulnerabilities in the overall Warner Bros. slate.
Mike and Pam are Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy, who run the Warner Bros. film slate. Belloni’s read is that Supergirl is a reality check for them, and worse timing for Gunn and Safran, whose hold on DC is about to be judged by a new owner.
As we covered when Ellison’s slate review started taking shape, the incoming regime is expected to take a hard look at DC. Letting productions already in motion keep moving is not protection. It is a new owner choosing not to set fire to a sinking ship.
And Ellison isn’t the sitting owner yet. Paramount’s deal is still pending and the close is expected in July.
The flop is landing during the handoff, with Gunn and Safran operating under the old owner while auditioning for the one who takes over in a few months.
Bigger Than One Weekend
Gunn and Safran earned the benefit of the doubt with Superman, which opened to $125 million and grossed $618 million worldwide. Supergirl was supposed to prove the reset was real.
Instead it is the second movie in the new DCU, and it stumbles out of the gate, with mixed to bad reviews, sliding tracking, and now an industry insider openly connecting it to the ownership decision hanging over the studio.
David Ellison is not inheriting DC during a victory lap. He is inheriting it right as the first warning sign lands in theaters.
That is exactly the kind of result a new owner remembers when deciding who gets to keep running the place.
