Supergirl‘s box office run has begun, and the first numbers making the rounds point to a soft start, in line with weeks of sliding projections.
Box office analyst Jatinder Singh, a Pinkvilla writer who has been cited as a box office expert by Deadline and others, reports that Supergirl pulled in roughly $6.5 million in Thursday previews, or about $8.25 million including its early Wednesday and Thursday screenings.
He adds that initial audience reception is “bad” and pegs the opening weekend at around $40 million.
One important note: these are early estimates, not official figures. The studio and the trades typically post confirmed preview grosses Friday morning, and that number can shift. We’ll update once official figures land.
Also worth keeping in mind on the mechanics: that preview figure, including the early screenings, folds into Friday’s gross rather than being added separately on top of the weekend. It’s the leading edge of the opening, not bonus money.
How It Compares
If the estimate holds, here’s roughly where Supergirl‘s preview night lands against other recent releases:
- Toy Story 5 — $17.5 million
- Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu — $12 million
- Supergirl — ~$8.25 million (including Wednesday)
- Disclosure Day — $6.5 million
- Mortal Kombat II — $5.2 million
- Masters of the Universe — $4.4 million
That would put Supergirl in the same range as recent geek-culture releases, though it’s not a clean comparison.
Supergirl held early Wednesday screenings, so its $8.25 million figure includes showtimes that the Thursday-only preview numbers above don’t.
The more telling number will be Friday’s full-day gross, and how the film holds into Saturday, that’s where bad word-of-mouth shows up, and where a soft opening either stabilizes or collapses. Previews are just the first hint.
The Number Has Been Falling For Weeks
A roughly $40 million weekend would cap a steady slide.
When tracking first opened, Deadline had Supergirl pegged for a $55 million-plus debut. The trade later walked its own number down to a $50M-$55M range, then again to the upper $40 millions on presales.
The independent trackers went lower still, with Box Office Theory and Box Office Pro cutting their estimates toward a floor as low as $34 million, a striking drop for a film backed by the biggest promotional partner campaign in DC Studios history.
The Reviews Didn’t Help
The soft tracking has been compounded by a mixed-to-negative reception.
Supergirl currently sits at 58% on Rotten Tomatoes from critics, with a 77% audience score, both well below Gunn’s Superman a year ago at 83% critics and 90% audience.
Singh’s note that early audience word is “bad” tracks with that softer audience number.
In our own review, we found a strong Milly Alcock and good visuals dragged down by a bland villain, a repetitive script, and the familiar Gunn-era goofiness. The trades were harsher, as Variety‘s Owen Gleiberman called it one of the worst scripts he could remember.
Losing The Weekend To Toy Story 5
Whatever the previews translate to, the weekend’s bigger story is set: Supergirl is going to lose the No. 1 spot in its own opening frame to the second weekend of Toy Story 5.
We flagged that weeks ago, and Deadline has since confirmed it, stating there’s “no question” the Pixar sequel tops the chart. Toy Story 5‘s second weekend is projected at $88 million-$96 million — well above Supergirl‘s opening.
It adds up to a tough launch on every front: opening soft, reviewing poorly, playing second to a Pixar holdover, and doing it while Warner Bros. has quietly lowered the bar for what it will call a win. The official numbers start landing Friday.
