According to the latest estimates, The Fantastic Four: First Steps is facing a potential massive decline of 66% in weekend two.
That’s more than the earlier estimated 55% to 60% drop.
Monday update: Actuals are lower with a 67.1% drop.
What are the latest estimates?
The Fantastic Four: First Steps opened to $117.6M. Its weekend two estimates are between $40M-$45M (via Deadline), which, if it hits that lower number, means the big 66% drop. It could even be more depending on what happens this weekend, as things stalled during its opening weekend as well.
Saturday update: Second weekend is being reported at $40M. Estimates for its second Friday are at $11.7 million, which Variety describes as a “devastating 80% drop from its debut.”
By comparison, James Gunn’s Superman only dropped 53.2%, bringing in over $58.4 million in its second weekend, following an opening of over $125 million. Gunn’s Superman is flying high with over $527M at the box office.
As I just went over, it’s becoming quite clear that the DCU’s Superman is outpacing Marvel’s Fantastic Four this summer.
For a comparison to recent Marvel movies:
Captain America: Brave New World dropped 68%, which is a confirmed bomb.
Thunderbolts only dropped 56%, but a lot less fans went to see that movie, and it’s also a confirmed bomb.
What happened?
First of all, The Fantastic Four: First Steps underperforming isn’t at all surprising. Feige’s post-Endgame approach has been a complete disaster on the big screen and on streaming. It’s turned fans off the MCU.
We have evidence of this simply from the fact that the “target” audience isn’t showing up for these type of films. Women aren’t coming out to see these movies. The overwhelming majority of the audience is made up of the fanboys (like 70%!).
More bad news for Fantastic Four is that families didn’t bother to show up. They went to see Superman instead.
Fans already moving on
Fantastic Four is an okay movie. I do like it. I don’t think it’s nearly as fun or good as Gunn’s Superman. Feige definitely played it safe. There are some cool scenes but the characters all come off pretty bland. It was also a big mistake to market the movie as woke, which they did in interviews and such, and go with the Female Silver Surfer and girl boss Sue Storm. Again, females aren’t interested in this kind of stuff, so what’s the point? To p-ss off your audience? Well, it worked. The MCU has been in a freefall since Endgame.
As a result, again Feige played it safe with FF, they pushed both Avengers: Doomsday and Secret Wars back to separate it as far as possible from the recent MCU bombs of The Marvels, Cap 4, Thunderbolts, and now it’s looking like Fantastic Four is the next bomb.
I’ll also add that there hasn’t been much discussion about Fantastic Four, other than the cool cosmic and Galactus scenes. The film also does nothing to hype Avengers: Doomsday. There’s LOTS of talk about Gunn’s Superman. Marvel fans are already moving on to Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which starts filming today.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps box office as of Thursday:
Grosses
- Domestic (61.5%): $158,427,635
- International (38.5%): $99,058,811
- Worldwide: $257,486,446
