According to a new report, the box office for Deadpool & Wolverine is now tracking lower for a $160 million-$165 million opening.
That’s a lot less than some estimates offering the film would open to $200 million or maybe even more.
Some estimates have also said $175 million or more.
What could be happening is that the new estimate is more conservative so when the flick gets released and pops with a larger number, it will make a good headline.
On the flip side, and this is as I feared, it could mean the hype isn’t all that surrounding Deadpool & Wolverine.
I just said they’re releasing cameo spoilers online ahead of time which reminds me of what they did with Dwayne Johnson’s Black Adam with Henry Cavill as Superman. We know how that all worked out.
So if Deadpool & Wolverine is tracking lower and ticket sales aren’t where they want them to be, and social media engagement isn’t as high as thought (all the talk has been about James Gunn filming Superman), now out comes all the spoilers.
Minutes ago I just saw a batch of Deadpool & Wolverine spoilers on my Twitter feed by some wannabe fan shill account likely from that China fan screening that was held a month before the movie’s release. It reeks of being desperate.
Also recall how Disney fudged the numbers for the Deadpool & Wolverine Super Bowl trailer in an attempt to make it look bigger than Spider-Man, and as I said, the presale tickets sold only half as much as Spider-Man: No Way Home which opened to $260 million in 2021.
It should be said $160-$165 millions is still a good number, but out of the gate Disney and the trades have been stating the Deadpool & Wolverine opening would be the biggest of 2024.
It will be interesting to see what happens this weekend with Despicable Me 4 and if it can ride on the success of Inside Out 2 which hit a billion dollars in 19 days.
The week Deadpool & Wolverine opens also sees a bit of competition as a lot of hardcore fans will be at Comic-Con, and it’s also the start of the Summer Olympics.
Deadpool & Wolverine opens July 26 directed by Shawn Levy starring Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman.
(Latest box office opening tracking via Deadline.com)
