The Mandalorian & Grogu is now tracking for an $80 million-plus four-day Memorial Day weekend opening, according to the latest box office estimates, via Deadline.
That is a big drop from earlier long-range tracking, which floated a possible $90 million to $100 million domestic opening.
I said at the time that number looked overly optimistic, especially based on the softer audience tracking and what ticket sales appeared to show.
Now the estimate looks a lot closer to reality.
Could Open Lower Than Solo
If The Mandalorian & Grogu opens around $80 million-plus across the four-day holiday frame, that would make it the lowest-opening Star Wars movie ever.
The current low belongs to Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $103 million over its four-day Memorial Day weekend back in 2018.
Solo went on to become one of the biggest disappointments in the history of the franchise, so that is not the comparison Disney and Lucasfilm want.
For a brand that once dominated the box office, opening below Solo would be a rough return to theaters.
Update: Puck News’ Matt Beloni says the $80M opening would be a “disaster.”
The Softer Tracking Lines Up With Earlier Concerns
The lower estimate also fits with the softer audience awareness we recently covered.
The Mandalorian & Grogu awareness score has actually dropped in recent weeks, which does not exactly scream $100 million opening. By comparison, Mortal Kombat II had a higher awareness score, while it was previously estimated much lower, at a $50M three-day opening.
That made the original $100 million forecast look high from the start.
It also matched what we saw when checking pre-sale seats on Fandango, where plenty of theaters still had lots of empty seats for Thursday previews and Friday opening day, and they still do.
Release info
The Mandalorian & Grogu opens only in theaters and IMAX on May 22, 2026. Tickets are now on sale.
IMAX and Lucasfilm are holding a special May the 4th fan event at select IMAX theaters around the world, giving fans more than 25 minutes of never-before-seen footage.
