Early long-range box office tracking for The Mandalorian & Grogu now says the Star Wars movie could open between $90 million and $100 million domestically when it hits theaters on May 22.
That comes from Box Office Pro’s latest forecast, which is calling for a possible $90-$100 million debut after Lucasfilm’s six-year break from the big screen.
The site also noted that even a $100 million opening would still be lower than every Disney-era Star Wars movie except Solo: A Star Wars Story.
However, right now, that estimate looks far too high to us.
The audience tracking does not exactly scream $100 million
As we recently went over, part of the reason the $100 million estimate stands out is that earlier audience tracking did not put The Mandalorian & Grogu at the top of the pack.
Earlier this month, the movie was sitting at an awareness score of 47 and an interest score of 48. By comparison, Mortal Kombat II came in higher, with an awareness score of 50 and an interest score of 52.
That does not automatically mean Mortal Kombat II will open more than The Mandalorian & Grogu, because Star Wars still has a bigger brand ceiling and more premium-screen upside.
But if Mortal Kombat II is being forecast in the $50 million to $60 million range by the trades, it is fair to question whether Mandalorian & Grogu really has the juice to nearly double that with softer awareness and interest metrics.
The number should be taken with a grain of salt
To be fair, this is long-range forecasting. These numbers can move a lot over the next few weeks depending on ticket sales, marketing, reviews, fan reaction, and how hard Disney pushes the IMAX angle.
Box Office Pro itself framed the $90 million to $100 million range as an early call, not a lock.
So yes, The Mandalorian & Grogu could hit that number, but right now it looks more like a best-case scenario than a sure thing.
The site also doesn’t say if that is the four-day estimate, as The Mandalorian & Grogu opens Memorial Day Weekend, but even if that is the case, we still think the number is high.
Fandango does not exactly suggest sellout demand
Tickets are already on sale through Fandango, including standard showings and premium screens, such as IMAX.
However, at least anecdotally, a check of current Fandango listings shows plenty of open seats for Thursday previews and Friday opening day in some theaters.
Worth a mention is that seat maps can change fast, but the numbers do not line up with the kind of immediate rush you would expect if a near-$100 million opening were already locked in.
Season 3 likely didn’t help things either.
The Mandalorian & Grogu hits theaters May 22nd.
