The Mandalorian and Grogu is looking like a box office disaster for Disney and Lucasfilm.
The Star Wars movie dropped to #3 on its second Friday with an estimated $6.5 million, losing to not one, but two low-budget horror movies. It’s also estimated to be #3 on Saturday.
Backrooms easily took #1 with $38.4 million on Friday, while Obsession came in at #2 with $8.1 million. The Mandalorian and Grogu followed in third place with $6.5 million.
So Disneyâs big Star Wars return just got beat by two horror movies made for a fraction of the cost.
Mando Drops More Than 80% From Opening Friday
The Mandalorian and Grogu opened last Friday with $33.7 million.
One week later, it is down to $6.5 million.
That is an over 80% Friday-to-Friday drop, which is even worse than Solo: A Star Wars Story. Solo brought in $8,121,086 on its second Friday back in 2018.
The dailies are now getting worse for Mando. Solo had already been beating it during the week, and now the gap appears to be widening.
Solo finished with $392.9 million worldwide, not adjusted for inflation. The Mandalorian and Grogu is now looking like it may not have the legs to get there.
Backrooms Beats Mandoâs Opening
Backrooms is now expected to open around $85 million to $88 million this weekend.
That would not only beat The Mandalorian and Grogu for the weekend, it would also top Mandoâs three-day opening from last week.
The movie is based on the viral internet horror concept and the YouTube work of Kane Parsons, also known as Kane Pixels. Parsons is only 20 years old and first broke through with his Backrooms YouTube series before A24 turned it into a feature film.
Backrooms opened to $38 million on Friday and could reach as high as $90 million for the weekend. The movie also reportedly cost around $10 million, compared to the $165 million reported budget for The Mandalorian and Grogu.
In other words, a YouTube-born horror movie from A24 may end up opening bigger than Star Wars.
Obsession Keeps Rolling
Obsession is also still beating Mando.
The low-budget horror movie brought in $8.1 million on Friday, again topping The Mandalorian and Grogu. Obsession reportedly cost only around $750,000 to $1 million and has become one of the biggest horror breakouts of the year. As of Wednesday, Obsession passed Mando at the daily box office after already being out a week prior.
Obsession also comes from YouTuber Curry Barker, which gives both horror movies something in common: they connect with the younger online audience.
Backrooms came from YouTube. Obsession came from a YouTuber. Both are horror. Both are cheaper. Both are beating Star Wars.
Second Weekend Drop Could Be Brutal
Some estimates now have The Mandalorian and Grogu dropping over 70% in its second weekend.
Solo dropped 65.2% from its three-day opening and 71.46% from its four-day Memorial Day opening in its second weekend. If Mando drops in that range or worse, the movie is in serious trouble.
The Mandalorian and Grogu opened to around $102 million over four days and $165 million worldwide, which was already the lowest Star Wars opening ever.
Now the movie doesnât appear to have legs.
A front-loaded Star Wars movie is bad news because it means the small number of hardcore fans who remain showed up, but the casual audience didnât follow. Mando needed families, kids, and lapsed Star Wars fans to keep showing up after opening weekend.
Instead, the audience seems to be going to horror.
Disney Star Wars Has A Bigger Problem
The Mandalorian and Grogu reportedly needs around $400 million and change just to break even, with reports previously saying $475 million is the number it needs to hit to be considered a success.
At this point, $475 million looks like a reach.
The bigger issue is Disney has likely spent a fortune marketing this movie. Grogu was supposed to be the safe bet. The Mandalorian was supposed to be the part of Disney Star Wars fans still liked. Jon Favreauâs movie was supposed to prove Star Wars could come back to theaters.
Instead, Mando is now getting passed by low-budget horror.
Fans want quality content. They also want something that feels fresh. The Disney Star Wars trilogy damaged the brand, and the Disney+ shows havenât done enough to rebuild the audience. Just the opposite. If a Mando movie had been released after Season 2, Disney might have had a success, but that Season 3 just drove fans away.
Backrooms and Obsession show younger audiences will still show up when something connects with them. The problem is they arenât showing up for Star Wars. Fans just don’t care anymore, which is the nail in the coffin.
