Two days prior to the opening of Captain America: Brave New World, the box office office estimates have dropped from less than three weeks ago.
What are the estimates?
Captain America: Brave New World opens on the long 4-day President’s Day weekend. The estimates from late in January offered a $95M+ opening. However, they have been revised down to $94M.
Deadline adds the 3-day is $80M. Two years ago saw Quantumania open to a 4-day of $120.3M and a $106.1M 3-day opening — and that’s for an Ant-Man film.
The site tries to spin the low opening estimates for Captain America: Brave New World by comparing the film to Captain America: The Winter Soldier – offering they’re similar type films (really?) – but with inflation factored in, The Winter Soldier blows those numbers away with a $125M 3-day and a $133M+ 4-day — and it didn’t have the benefit of opening on a holiday weekend.
Ticket sales
The good news is that at least ticket sales have seemed to gotten a bump. At the end of January, it was reported presales were on par with Eternals, which opened to $71M. The latest update says presales are 40% ahead of Eternals.
It’s added Captain America: Brave New World ticket sales are trailing 10%-15% behind Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which if holds, would mean Brave New World could open above $100M, but with the estimates only $94M, it appears walk-ups for Brave New World are expected to be fewer (also suggests less hype).
International box office
Internationally, Captain America: Brave New World is estimated to open to $110M, for around an estimated $190M worldwide opening.
Brave New World also opens in China at the same time where it has been reported the presale numbers are actually good and better than The Batman ($175K), Deadpool & Wolverine ($221K), and Transformers: Rise of the Beasts ($250K).
Word-of-mouth
As I’ve been going over, word-of-mouth will make or break the film. If it’s actually good, Marvel should have nothing to worry about as word will quickly spread. However, if it “sends the message” or is simply a bad film, expect a massive drop in its second week.
Anthony Mackie’s recent politically-oriented comments certainly didn’t help (honestly, I don’t think he gives AF). The reports about the rewrites and reshoots also aren’t helping.
I’m seeing the flick on Thursday so I’ll get my reaction and review out ASAP.
Captain America: Brave New World opens Feb. 13th with Thursday previews and officially on Friday, Feb. 14.
