The latest box office estimates for Captain America: Brave New World suggest the movie is tracking for an opening significantly lower than Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which debuted on the same weekend in 2023.
What are the latest estimates?
Via Deadline, Captain America: Brave New World is estimated to open to a 4-day President’s Day weekend of $95M+.
Quantumania opened to a 4-day $120.3M and a $106.1M 3-day opening.
Captain America: Brave New World is also coming nowhere near the four-day opening records for Presidents Day weekend of 2018’s Black Panther $242.1M and Deadpool $152.1M.
Previous estimates have said Brave New World could open to as high as $107M or as low as $86M.
How are ticket sales?
Deadline says following tickets having gone on sale on Monday, they’re currently trailing 15% behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 which opened to $118M.4M. The site also claims ticket sales are well above Shang-Chi ($94.6M 4-day).
We recently went over the ticket sales where it is said presales are on par with Eternals and it’s hoped Brave New World will be able to beat Shang-Chi. It was also said ticket sales are nowhere near Quantumania and are falling short of Black Widow.
Deadline also adds that it sounds like women will be skipping out on the movie as it’s “hot with men above and under 25.” The site also says the flick is “solid” with the diverse audience of Latino and Black fans.
Word of mouth will make or break the film
While Deadline says the Captain America: Brave New World budget is around $180M, a previous report has said due to the numerous reshoots, the budget is more like 2x that number, around $350 million. The producer behind the movie who also produced Eternals has exited Marvel.
With such a high budget, Brave New World will need to earn a ton of cash just to break even. An opening smaller than Quantumania and ticket sales comparable to Eternals is not a promising start. While reviews have yet to be released, it seems like this may be another movie that will rely heavily on word of mouth, as things are off to a slow start.
Captain America: Brave New World opens Feb. 14 and on Feb. 13 with early previews.
