Exactly as I first told you on Friday night from my WonderCon sources out of Hollywood, Super Mario Galaxy Movie box office estimates are big.
Now the estimates are in.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is tracking for a huge worldwide debut, with early box office estimates pointing to around $350 million globally over its opening stretch.
That would make the Illumination, Nintendo, and Universal sequel the biggest global opening of the year so far and put it right in line with the massive numbers posted by the first movie.
Super Mario Galaxy Movie box office estimates explained
According to the latest box office projections, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is looking at around $175 million domestically over five days in the U.S. and Canada.
Overseas, the movie is also estimated to bring in another $175 million across 79 international markets.
This puts the film at roughly $350 million worldwide to start, and that does not even include Japan, which won’t open until April 24 to align with the Golden Week holiday frame.
The movie is also getting the benefit of IMAX and other premium large format screens, which should help boost the total even more.
Could beat the first movie in key areas
The first Super Mario Bros. movie opened to $377.2 million worldwide in 2023, including $204.6 million over five days domestically and $171 million from offshore markets.
So while The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is not yet projected to beat the first film’s full worldwide opening, it is expected to top the original’s international launch outside North America.
That is one of the bigger takeaways from the early estimates.
Advance ticket sales are also reportedly running slightly ahead of where the first movie was at the same point, which is another strong sign heading into release.
Universal reportedly still does not want to lock in a $200 million-plus five-day domestic opening just yet, but the early forecast shows the sequel is in very strong shape.
Biggest opening of the year so far
If these numbers hold, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will easily post the biggest opening of the year worldwide for a Hollywood release.
That would put it ahead of Project Hail Mary, which opened to $141 million globally.
The estimates also suggest Mario could have one of the top openings of 2026 overall, depending on how it compares to major international releases from China and other markets.
Either way, this is shaping up to be another monster launch for Nintendo and Illumination.
Japan release still to come
One reason the global total could keep climbing is that Japan has not opened yet.
That market was the top overseas territory for the first movie, bringing in close to $102 million in its run.
Other top international markets for the 2023 film included Mexico, the UK, France, and Germany.
So once Japan joins the rollout later in April, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could get another big push at the global box office.
Release info
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie opens April 1, 2026, and stars Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan-Michael Key, Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Issa Rae, Luis Guzmán, Kevin Michael Richardson, and Brie Larson. The screenplay is by Matthew Fogel. Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic direct, with Chris Meledandri and Shigeru Miyamoto producing.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is an animated film based on the world of Super Mario Bros. and follows The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which was released in 2023 and earned more than $1.3 billion worldwide. Both the 2023 film and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie are produced by Chris Meledandri of Illumination and Shigeru Miyamoto of Nintendo.
The film is co-financed by Universal Pictures and Nintendo and will be released worldwide by Universal Pictures.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is directed by returning filmmakers Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic from a screenplay by returning writer Matthew Fogel, with Brian Tyler returning to compose the score.
