Don’t call it a comeback—Thunderbolts might have never disappeared. The flick, now rebranded as New Avengers, might actually have a shot at passing Captain America: Brave New World at the box office.
While, let’s be honest, that’s not saying much, at least it’s better than landing just above Black Widow and Eternals—or worse, The Marvels—at the bottom of the MCU box office.
Needs legs
Thunderbolts will need some help to pull it off: it has to keep its legs, outperforming Cap 4 as it currently is, and get a boost internationally, where it’s been soft so far, and at least match Cap 4’s numbers in the foreign markets.
The bonus is that Thunderbolts has been playing in 200+ more theaters domestically than Cap 4 from the start.
By my calculation, currently, Thunderbolts is performing around 50% better than Captain America: Brave New World in the dailies (see below). It also saw less of a drop in its second weekend and even made more than Cap 4’s second weekend.
Performing by 50% better
This past Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, Thunderbolts actually performed 50% better with a $9 million gross, compared to Cap 4’s $6 million in the same timeframe.
If the trend continues, that would give Thunderbolts a total domestic run of over $217M, better than Cap 4’s $200M.
Could come close to break-even number
If Thunderbolts manages to match Cap 4’s foreign gross of $214.6M, Thunderbolts could hit over $432M worldwide, which is close to what is said to be it’s break-even number of $450M (which I actually think is low but I digress).
After the first 13 days domestically, Thunderbolts has brought in $136.8M, while Captain America: Brave New World brought in $147.1M; however, again, Thunderbolts is over-performing compared to Cap 4, so the New Avengers could eventually pass Cap Falcon.
How will the third weekend peform?
In its third weekend, Captain America: Brave New World saw a 47.3% drop from its second weekend ($28.17M) and brought in $14.85M. It dropped 68.3% in weekend two from its first weekend opening of $88.8M. Brave New World has a worldwide gross of $415M.
Thunderbolts opened with $74.3M and dropped only 56.4% to $32.39M in weekend two. Maybe it will have legs and see less of a drop than Cap 4’s third weekend of 47.3%? It will need to, to catch up. I’ll update the numbers below as the weekend progresses.
Saturday night update: It’s reported Thunderbolts is looking like a $16M third weekend, a 50% drop, which would be a domestic box office of $154.8M, including Sunday.
Sunday update: Thunderbolts performed even better with a $16,536,000 third weekend, a 48.9% drop. The flick is now over $325M worldwide.
Thunderbolts box office as of Sunday:
- Domestic (47.7%): $155,427,643
- International (52.3%): $170,300,000
- Worldwide: $325,727,643
Weekend:
- May 2-4: $74,300,608
- May 9-11: $32,390,811 -56.4%
- May 16 -18: $16,536,000 -48.9%
Daily:
- May 2 Friday (includes Thursday previews): $31,813,091
- May 3 Saturday: $24,683,098
- May 4 Sunday: $17,804,419
- May 5 Monday: $5,008,275
- May 6 Tuesday: $7,463,926
- May 7 Wednesday: $4,318,188
- May 8 Thursday: $4,263,198
- May 9 Friday: $9,085,515
- May 10 Saturday: $13,509,770
- May 11 Sunday: $9,795,526
- May 12 Monday: $2,653,124
- May 13 Tuesday: $4,000,911
- May 14 Wednesday: $2,413,438 ($136,812,479 total)
- May 15 Thursday: $2,079,164 ($138,891,643 total)
- May 16 Friday: $4,275,000
- May 17 Saturday: $7,300,000
- May 18 Sunday: $4,961,000 ($155,427,643)
Captain America: Brave New World daily through three weekends:
- Feb 14 Friday: $40,912,377
- Feb 15 Saturday: $27,719,411
- Feb 16 Sunday: $20,210,815
- Feb 17 Monday: $11,178,411
- Feb 18 Tuesday: $6,320,276
- Feb 19 Wednesday: $3,419,116
- Feb 20 Thursday: $3,245,332
- Feb 21 Friday: $7,282,666
- Feb 22 Saturday: $12,867,133
- Feb 23 Sunday: $8,020,294
- Feb 24 Monday: $1,758,254
- Feb 25 Tuesday: $2,697,013
- Feb 26 Wednesday: $1,558,787 ($147,189,885 total through 13 days)
- Feb 27 Thursday: $1,506,713
- Feb 28 Friday: $3,558,797
- Mar 1 Saturday: $6,845,635
- Mar 2 Sunday: $4,446,456 ($163,547,486 total)
