Ladies and gentlemen, grab your popcorn and take your seats! In the red corner, clad in sandals and armor, we have ‘Gladiator II’—the sequel to the Oscar-winning epic, ready to fight its way to box office glory! And in the sparkling emerald corner, draped in magic and melodies, it’s ‘Wicked’—the musical blockbuster hoping to enchant its way to victory! Who will reign supreme? Let the box office showdown begin!”
This weekend sees the simultaneous release of Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II and Universal Pictures take on a Wizard of Oz prequel, Wicked, which adapts the super popular Broadway show.
The movie industry is hopeful it will be a repeat of “Barbenheimer” from last year, which is when the Barbie movie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer were released simultaneously and both saw massive success. They are referring to the Gladiator II and Wicked release as “Glicked.”
What are the box office estimates?
The Thursday preview numbers are in as are the opening weekend box office estimates.
For comparison, Barbie made $22.3 million in Thursday previews, with Oppenheimer $10.5 million. Barbie opened to $162M and finished with over $1.4 billion. Oppenheimer opened to half that, $82.4M, and finished with $975M.
Wicked‘s Thursday previews are reported to be $19.2 million, which similar to Barbie includes multiple preview days as there were Monday and Wednesday fan screenings.
Gladiator II‘s Thursday preview numbers are reported to be $6.5M.
Wicked‘s opening weekend box office has been estimated between $110 – $140M; the latest estimates offer $120M+ (update: Friday night estimates offer $120M; Saturday update: estimates are $117M). Sunday update: Actuals are $114M.
Gladiator II‘s opening weekend box office has been estimated between $60 – $80M; the latest estimates offer $59M-$66M (update: Friday night estimates offer $61M; Saturday update: estimates are at $60M). Sunday update: Actuals are $55.5M.
With inflation factored in, the 2000 Gladiator opened at $70M and finished with an $844.15M box office.
What are the Rotten Tomatoes scores?
Barbie finished with Rotten Tomatoes scores of 88% from the critics and 83% from the fans.
Oppenheimer finished with 93% from the critics and 91% from the fans.
Currently, Wicked is at 89% from the critics and 98% from its existing fanbase which likely made up a majority of the previews (some fans are apparently going in the theaters dressed up).
The Gladiator II Rotten Tomatoes Score from critics is at 72%, while the fan score is at 84% (the first Gladiator released in 2000 starring Russell Crowe has a Rotten Tomatoes Score from critics at 80% and from fans at 87%).
What are the budgets?
It’s reported the budget for Wicked is somewhere around $175 million (reports offer Universal shelled out $350M on Wicked and Wicked: Part Two), likely plus marketing and such.
For Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II, it is reported the flick cost a massive $250 million plus another $100 million in marketing costs, which brings the total cost to at least $350 million at Paramount Pictures.
Is Glicked, Barbenheimer all over again?
My gut tells me Glicked is not going to be another Barbenheimer as I don’t think Gladiator II will be all that successful.
I have a feeling that Gladiator II won’t have any legs and will be quickly forgotten.
On the other hand, Wicked already has a huge built-in fanbase so that should do well, but I don’t think it will do Barbie numbers.
This weekend’s Saturday numbers should be interesting. Wicked was heavily front-loaded in its previews with Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday screenings, which will count as part of Friday’s numbers. So expect Friday to be big, but what about Saturday?
Gladiator II will likely open to around $60M or less and drop next week, while Wicked will probably have some staying power.
