Saturday Morning update:
It’s exactly as I said below, as estimates are now higher offering Captain America: Brave New World has a chance of a $100M+ opening. As I told you, Deadline now has an article up on how the flick could bring in “$100M+ In 4-Days” and says “here’s Brave New World boldly overperforming to a degree.”
Latest estimates
The Friday/Thursday previews box office is now estimated up, said to be $40M from a previous $39M. Estimates offer the 4-day could be between $95M-$109M, which is up from just $90M less than a day ago (see below for Friday and Thursday reports). Disney is estimating $90M-$96M and won’t call it $100M until they get the actuals.
Don’t fall for the spin
Laughably, Deadline is also now comparing Brave New World‘s box office to 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy, which came out 11 years ago. As Deadline has been doing with Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the site is essentially tricking you into thinking Brave New World is outperforming those two films (creating a sense of FOMO – fear of missing out to get you to run to the theaters to see it). However, when inflation is factored in, there is really no comparison. Guardians of the Galaxy‘s first Friday opened to over $50M in today’s dollars, and it opened to a 3-day $126.54M.
Previous from Friday 2/14/2025:
As I said below, the Captain America: Brave New World box office is underperforming compared to estimates. The latest estimates now offer a potential $90+ million 4-day opening, down from $95+ million, and down from $94+ million. The 3-day is estimated around $82M-$84M. Friday, along with Thursday’s $12M, is estimated to bring in $39M.
Also, once again, Deadline spins complete BS as they point out Captain America: Brave New World ‘s Friday box office beat out Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $36.9M. However, what the site continues not to tell you is that when inflation is factored in, that number is actually $49.52M. That’s quite the difference. Captain America: The Winter Soldier was released back in 2014.
Two years ago saw Quantumania open during the same weekend; it’s first Friday brought in $46.4M. The good news at least is that Brave New World is now trailing Quantumania by around 15%, so it seems to have made up some ground on Friday (see below for Thursday’s report). Interestingly, the 3-day estimates went up but the 4-day went down. Deadline could be estimating a lower number than actuals in order to get a headline that Brave New World overperforms, so be on the lookout for that.
As it seems to have made up ground on Friday, maybe things will continue and Brave New World will get a bump on Saturday and into the long weekend. Could $100M be possible? Word-of-mouth is out and it seems as if fans will be going to watch to check things out for themselves. Reactions are mixed, but lean toward the negative side. Don’t go in expecting much, enjoy the popcorn, and you should be okay.
Previous report about Thursday:
Captain America: Brave New World has brought in $12 million with its Thursday previews at the box office, which looks to be on the low side. The number is much lower than Quantuamania‘s $17.5M from 2023.
While it has been reported that Brave New World‘s ticket sales have been around 10%-15% behind Quantumania, that should have put Brave New World‘s Thursday numbers around $15-16M. As it stands, Brave New World is trailing Quantumania by more than 30%.
NO comparison to Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Also let’s be clear: There is NO comparison to 2014’s Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which is a MUCH better film and looks to have made A LOT more money. Shill site Deadline has been trying to spin things to make Brave New World look better than Winter Soldier (LOL) but what they are failing to do in reporting their numbers is take into account inflation.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier came out 11 years ago. So that means in today’s dollars the Thursday previews ($10.2M) for Captain America: The Winter Soldier actually brought in $13.69M. It’s 3-day opening ($95M) in today’s dollars brought in a massive $127.48M.
Latest estimates
Brave New World is opening with a 4-day holiday weekend and will be lucky if it cracks $95M. Current estimates offer only an $80M 3-day and a $94M 4-day opening.
It will be interesting to see how the flick does Friday and Saturday. Worth-of-mouth is starting to get out. The reactions from fans are tending to be on the more negative side, however, as I said in my review, I think you can still enjoy Brave New World as a fun superhero popcorn movie.
More bad news is that Deadline says social media analytics aren’t all that good and that Captain America: Brave New World is trending average for a superhero movie. It’s nowhere near Deadpool & Wolverine, and even gets beat out by Thor: Love and Thunder (yikes).
Crushed by the critics
Captain America: Brave New World is also getting crushed by the critics on Rotten Tomatoes with a current 53% score. Its audience score is also on the low side for a superhero movie with 79%.
The movie isn’t perfect. I liked it (read my review here, I give it a 7/10), but a lot of fans aren’t happy that Mackie is Captain America. And considering what Disney and the MCU have put them through with the past five years worth of content, I don’t blame them. Fans are voting with their wallets just like they did with The Marvels.
