Predator: Badlands looked like it might break the franchise curse after a stronger-than-expected opening, but early second-week numbers now show the film slipping into dangerous territory.
Despite a $40 million domestic debut and $39.2 million international for a $79.2 million worldwide total ($88,535,677 as of Tuesday), the movie’s high $105 million production budget has put it on a path where breaking even is far from guaranteed.
A Tough Road to Profit
Industry math is simple: a film generally needs around 2.5x its production budget to break even. For Badlands, that means roughly $262.5 million worldwide.
Right now, it’s far from that trajectory.
We can compare Badlands to this year’s Weapons, which opened close to Badlands at $43.5 million and went on to deliver:
- $151.5 million domestic
- $116.6 million international
- $268.1 million worldwide
That’s essentially the exact target Badlands needs to hit just to break even.
Week 2 Drop Is the Warning Sign
This is where the trouble starts. Predator: Badlands is now:
- Tracking lower on the daily numbers than Weapons ($49,281,667 vs $55,498,630 in their first five days)
- Projected to drop 60% in its second weekend
- Expected to pull in around $16 million for weekend two
Meanwhile, Weapons had a far healthier second-weekend decline of 43.8%, bringing in over $24.4 million during its second frame.
That difference matters. It shows one film held interest and kept its momentum, while Badlands appears to be losing speed fast, especially with The Running Man remake grabbing attention from the same audience this weekend.
Foreign Box Office Will Decide Its Fate
With domestic turnout slowing and the film tracking under Weapons on every major metric:
- Badlands cannot break even on domestic earnings alone (presently looking like it will come under Weapons‘ $151M)
- It will need a strong international run — and possibly even long legs — just to get out of the red.
- If the slowdown continues, the movie could finish well below the $260+ million threshold, cementing it as another Disney box office bomb despite a promising debut.
A Franchise High, but Not a Financial Win (Yet)
The irony is that Badlands delivered the biggest domestic opening in Predator franchise history (not counting inflation), but the high budget and the steep second-week drop may erase most of that good news.
If international earnings don’t surge in the coming weeks, Predator: Badlands may go down as another big-budget sci-fi title that opened well, peaked early, and couldn’t recover.
