As I went over on Friday, Predator: Badlands is on track to lose $60 million or more. Now the third weekend numbers are in, and it’s not looking good.
With Predator: Badlands now at $76.28 million domestic and $83.3 million international for a $159.58 million worldwide total after 17 days, the picture is getting clear: this thing is in trouble.
The reported production budget is $105 million, and by the standard 2.5x rule of thumb, Badlands needs about $262.5 million worldwide just to break even. Right now it’s a little over $100 million short of that mark.
Domestic Finish: ~$95–100 Million At Best
Domestically, Badlands has been trending well behind Weapons, which opened similar and finished at $151.55 million. After 17 days, Weapons had made $115.68 million; Badlands sits at $76.28 million over the same time frame and is dropping harder weekend-to-weekend.
In its third weekend, Weapons brought in over $15.4M. Badlands? Less than half that number at just $6.25M.
If Badlands legs out with a similar late-run multiplier to other genre titles—but with steeper drops than Weapons—you’re probably looking at a final domestic total in the $95–100 million range. Anything much higher than that would require very strong holds that the film simply hasn’t shown so far.
Worldwide Total Likely Far Below Break-Even
Internationally, Badlands has reached about $83.3 million and picked up another $13 million overseas this weekend. Even if it mirrors domestic growth and foreign markets add another $25–$35 million over the rest of the run, that still only points to a worldwide finish in the roughly $200–210 million range.
That’s well short of the $262.5 million break-even line on production alone. Once you factor in marketing and distribution costs, the actual loss on paper could easily land in the ballpark of $60–70 million, if not more, before ancillaries like streaming and home video soften the blow.
What This Means For The Predator Franchise
As I’ve gone over, on paper, Predator: Badlands started strong enough to give Disney and 20th Century hope. But the combination of sharp weekend drops, softer dailies, and a heavy budget means the movie is now tracking like a clear underperformer.
If it does end up topping out around $200 million worldwide against a $105 million budget, that’s the kind of result that makes studios rethink theatrical as the default for this IP.
Don’t be surprised if this performance strengthens the argument to push future Predator projects back toward streaming-only releases in the vein of Prey, instead of betting nine-figure budgets on the big screen.
