Mortal Kombat II is now looking at the low end of its box office estimates, and the Saturday numbers are not a great sign.
The sequel opened strong enough on Friday, taking the No. 1 spot with $17 million, including $5.2 million from Thursday previews.
But by Saturday, Mortal Kombat II dropped to No. 3, falling behind The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Michael, bringing in an estimated $12.7M to $14.5M.
Updated Sunday estimates now have Mortal Kombat II opening around $38.7 million. That is below the initial $50 million claim, below the revised $40 million-plus estimates after Thursday previews, and much closer to Warner Bros. and New Lineâs own $35 million expectations.
Likewise, the international numbers are soft, with estimates at $23M opening, while $30M was expected.
The budget is reportedly around $80 million, which means Mortal Kombat II likely needs roughly $200 million worldwide to break even using the usual 2.5x rule of thumb. For an IP as recognizable as Mortal Kombat, that should be a reachable number, but the opening weekend now puts more pressure on the movie to have strong legs.
Saturday drop lines up with tracking dip
The weaker Saturday also fits with the tracking we have been reporting.
As previously covered, Mortal Kombat II was still leading the genre pack in awareness, but the movement was going the wrong way. The sequel dipped 2 points in awareness and 4 points in interest over the prior two weeks heading into release.
Now the box office is following the same pattern. The early $50 million talk turned into the $40 million range, and now the movie is opening at the low end of that revised estimate.
It also lines up with what I saw at my own Thursday preview screening. I went with my 18-year-old son to a Regal RPX screen, and we were the only two people in the theater.
Perhaps marketing is part of the problem. More than one person told me they barely saw any ads for Mortal Kombat II, which is not what you want for a franchise sequel trying to pull in more than just the hardcore fanbase.
Rotten Tomatoes and CinemaScore also dip
The audience reaction is also a mixed picture.
Mortal Kombat II is still doing well with fans on Rotten Tomatoes, but the numbers have come down.
The critic score has dropped to 65%, while the fan score has slipped to 89%. That is still strong, and it remains higher than the 2021 Mortal Kombat movie, which has an 85% audience score. Rotten Tomatoes lists the first Mortal Kombat at 55% from critics and 85% from the audience.
The CinemaScore is more concerning. Mortal Kombat II earned a B, which is below the B+ earned by the 2021 movie. For a fan-driven action movie, a B is not terrible, but it is not great either.
That suggests the hardcore fans are mostly happy, but the broader opening-night crowd may not have been as fired up.
Did fans decide to wait for streaming?
One obvious question is whether fans are waiting for streaming.
The 2021 Mortal Kombat released during Warner Bros.â pandemic-era day-and-date strategy, meaning it opened in theaters and on HBO Max at the same time.
That movie reportedly did huge numbers on streaming, so it is fair to wonder if some of the audience have been trained to watch Mortal Kombat at home.
Mortal Kombat II is theatrical-only right now, but a chunk of the fanbase may be waiting for Max instead of paying for a theater ticket. For a hard-R video game movie, that could matter.
Fans who saw it mostly liked it
The box office drop does not mean fans hate the movie.
Those who saw Mortal Kombat II seem to be mostly positive. The Rotten Tomatoes fan score is still at 89%, and the movie has been getting favorable word of mouth from a lot of fans.
Three of my normie friends also liked it.
I liked it too. In my review, I said Mortal Kombat II delivers the fatalities, fight scenes, special effects, music, and âawe sh-tâ moments you want from this franchise. The Kung Lao vs. Liu Kang fight was the standout, Josh Lawsonâs Kano stole the show again, and Martyn Ford made Shao Kahn feel like a threat.
The movie has problems, but as a video game fighting movie, it gives fans a lot of what they came to see.
Was Johnny Cage the wrong move?
That said, we have to talk about Johnny Cage.
Karl Urban is a good actor, but was he the right choice for Johnny Cage? Or maybe the better question is whether this was the wrong direction for the character.
Johnny Cage is supposed to be cool, cocky, flashy, and full of himself. In Mortal Kombat II, he comes off more like a washed-up slacker who gets used to explain the plot to a newb audience who no-showed.
Fans wanted coolness. They got the normie guide.
Using Johnny Cage that way might work for casual viewers who need the Mortal Kombat lore explained, but it also undercuts one of the franchiseâs biggest personalities. My son thought Johnny Cage should have been a lot cooler, and I agree.
For a sequel that was marketed heavily around finally bringing Johnny Cage into the reboot franchise, that could be a problem. I dive further into what happened with Karl Urban here.
Strong female storyline, but male-heavy audience
The movie also has a strong female storyline and character presence with Kitana, Jade, and Sonya Blade.
None of that ruins the movie. In fact, the characters work fine in the story. But it is noticeable, especially in a movie where the audience is reportedly around 75% male.
The female characters are not the reason the box office dropped. The bigger issues look more like marketing, awareness, streaming habits, and whether Johnny Cage connected the way Warner Bros. hoped.
Still, when your audience is overwhelmingly male, it is fair to ask whether the movie gave that crowd the version of Mortal Kombat they were expecting: cool girl power and loser dudes.
Can fan word of mouth save it?
Mortal Kombat II is not dead, but the Saturday drop is a warning sign.
The movie opened below the early $50 million talk, landed below the revised $40 million-plus expectations, and came in closer to the studioâs lower estimate.
The CinemaScore is weaker than the first movie, the Rotten Tomatoes critic score has dropped, and audience awareness was already slipping before release.
Fans still seem to like it. That helps.
But now Mortal Kombat II needs legs. If the fanbase shows up again and word of mouth holds, the sequel can still avoid a total fatality. If not, Warner Bros. and New Line may have a movie that played well to the hardcore crowd but failed to break out beyond them.
