The Guardians of the Galaxy 3 box office happens to be tracking low – potentially a massive flop – for the next Marvel movie as part of Kevin Feige’s Phase 5 which is already off to a rocky start following Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania‘s big bust.
According to early estimates, Guardians of the Galaxy 3 is tracking for a $130 million opening, which is less than Guardians of the Galaxy 2’s $146.5 million back in 2017. The first movie released in 2014 opened to $94.3 million.
Additional estimates also offer the flick could open anywhere between $120 million and $155 million, so we’ll have to see how things play out; however, according to early projections, things could be worse.
Update: Estimates are now as low a $110 million.
Guardians of the Galaxy 3 pre-sale numbers are awful?
The early estimates are said to in part come from initial pre-sales where Box Office Pro reports the Guardians of the Galaxy 3 pre-sale numbers are actually lower than every Marvel movie released post-Avengers: Endgame except for Black Widow and Shang-Chi.
Now that’s surprising as that means Guardians of the Galaxy 3 pre-sale numbers are lower than Eternals which opened to only $71 million and lower than Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania which opened to $106 million. Those numbers would be a huge disaster for Kevin Feige, James Gunn, and for Guardians of the Galaxy 3.
Pre-release marketing is terrible?
The site also adds that pre-release marketing is not generating the kind of social media imprint volume as any of 2023’s MCU releases, again which is something pretty surprising and includes Quantumania which bombed at the box office and misfired with fans.
Deadline does happen to add in its own box office report “distribution sources specify that the campaign for GOTG3 hasn’t really fired up to its full potential yet. Hence, there’s nothing to worry about.”
Bear in mind that Deadline does love to spin BS for the film industry, so keep that in mind, but even I am having a hard time believing Guardians of the Galaxy 3 will open anywhere close to Eternals and Quantuamania but let’s take a look on why it could bomb at the box office.
Why could Guardians of the Galaxy 3 bomb at the box office?
So if the early estimates hold true and Guardians of the Galaxy 3 bombs, what’s the reason?
Reasons I foresee what could be adding to the possibility of Guardians of the Galaxy 3 FUD include:
The second movie isn’t as well-liked as the first movie: The first flick has a 92% Rotten Tomatoes Score from both the critics and the fans, while the sequel is at 85% and 87%, respectively. Over at IMDb, it’s more of the same with the first movie at an 8.0 and the second at a 7.6.
James Gunn could be a problem as audiences might not have forgotten that Gunn was fired from Disney and Marvel over raunchy tweets, so if the conservative family crowd hasn’t forgiven Gunn that could be a huge loss.
James Gunn moving to DC could also be an issue for fans, especially Feige’s zombie MCU fans, so some of them might bail on Guardians of the Galaxy 3 just to spite Gunn.
Another goofy Marvel movie might actually be a factor as it seems audiences are done to death with the goofy-ass MCU. I’ve said it before, Kevin Feige has gone too goofy with the MCU as of late. Ironically, is Guardians to blame? It’s no doubt Guardians of the Galaxy has been a big hit, so we see that Feige went the goofy ass route for Thor: Ragnarok and even more so in Thor: Love and Thunder which is a big blunder with fans. Then of course there is Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania kicked off Phase 5 and introduced the MCU fans to the next Thanos-level villain with Jonathan Majors (that’s another issue there) as Kang the Conqueror, but a majority of the MCU fans rejected the flick as the script is terrible, the overall story is terrible, the CGI is terrible (looking at you, MODOK) and again, it’s just too damn goofy. I actually think it was a big mistake for Feige to go in the direction they did with Quantumania because it’s basically the same as Guardians of the Galaxy, or at least it comes off that way.
What about the Disney Plus shows? A turn-off? Groot was really bad and the Holiday Special was also nothing to write home about so maybe fans are less enthusiastic for Vol. 3.
Guardians are no longer special?
While I have my issues with James Gunn and Guardians of the Galaxy, again, it’s no doubt the movies have been a success and are entertaining, but Feige making everything about the MCU just as goofy, I think, has taken away the Guardians being special. Quatumania is goofy, bright, and vibrant with a large cast and has a black actor as the villain, and it’s ditto for Guardians of the Galaxy 3. The movies basically look identical.
The bonus Guardians has going for it is that it does have James Gunn involved who does look at these characters like family, so we have to hope he’s taking care of them and not throwing them under the bus as he moves to DC.
Gunn did just echo my own thoughts about perceived superhero fatigue where he basically says that it’s not superhero fatigue fans have it’s fatigue of garbage. The Marvel movies have been terrible as of late because of the choices made by those involved not just because they are movies with superheroes.
Again, I’ll be surprised if Guardians of the Galaxy 3 is a box office bust, but if that is the case, expect heads to further roll at Marvel.
Up next is The Marvels which looks even worse and comes off as another goofy MCU movie, so it could very well be #RIPMCU which already has one foot in the grave.
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