F1: The Movie opened this weekend, and if you believe social media and the trades, it’s a roaring success.
Great news, right? In a year full of cinematic faceplants, something new and original finally crosses the finish line!
Well… pump the brakes.
Budget vs Box office
First of all, F1: The Movie has a mammoth budget, reported to be $300 million by some accounts, $250 million by others, and according to Variety, Apple put the production budget at $200 million. Using the industry standard of 2.5x to break even, that means the movie would need to gross between $500 million and $750 million just to break even.
Okay, so how did its opening weekend box office do?
F1: The Movie opened to $55.6 million. That’s not a good number for a movie that cost this much.
Luckily, the international audience showed up, adding $88.4 million, for a current worldwide gross of $144 million. Hey, that doesn’t sound too bad right, well…
Update: Grace Randolph backs up exactly what I said. When the trades report on the “global” box office instead of the domestic, you know the flick is in trouble. Randolph says it’s a desperate move by the trades to make things look better.
7/14 update: After three weekends, F1 is at $393,456,528 worldwide ($136,256,528 domestic / $257,200,000 foreign).
Thunderbolts opened bigger, cost less
Let’s compare F1: The Movie to say Marvel’s Thunderbolts that actually cost less and opened bigger.
Thunderbolts cost a reported $180M, and opened to $74.3M, yet finished with $381.6M worldwide. It’s a bomb.
Cap 4 opened bigger, cost less
How about Cap 4? Captain America: Brave New World‘s budget is reported to be similar to Thunderbolts.
It actually opened to $88.8M and finished with $415.1M. Disney confirmed and named Cap 4 in its recent investor report as a bomb, along with Snow White.
Could be similar to Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
How about Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning? Also had a mammoth budget, reported to be $300M, even $400M.
It opened at $64M 3-day, and $79M for its 4-day holiday weekend. It has brought in $561M, which doesn’t come close to its break-even number.
How is F1: The Movie a big success?
So, F1: The Movie, which opened less and cost more, is a big success? What world are we living in that this is true?
How about comparing to Minecraft? That opened to a massive $162.7M and brought in close to a billion, over $954M.
F1: The Movie, with all the summer competition in the next few weeks, is going to come close to Minecraft numbers? Good luck with that ever happening.
Sinners ($48M) opened comparable to F1: The Movie and has brought in over $364M. That would be a complete disaster for F1.
Sure, it’s nice to see something original open for once, and which is also a crowd-pleaser (97% RT fan score), but at the end of the day, this isn’t about “artistic wins” or “social media buzz.” F1: The Movie needs to make money. And right now, it’s looking like it’s stuck in reverse.
