The Supergirl box office projections are heading in the wrong direction with less than two weeks to release.
Box Office Theory has cut its forecast for the DC Studios film by 9%, now estimating a U.S. opening of $51 million when Supergirl hits theaters June 26.
For everything we know about the upcoming DC movie, check out our full Supergirl guide.
The Company It’s Keeping
A $51 million opening would land Supergirl below a string of DC titles that aren’t the comparison Warner Bros. wants, including one of the studio’s most notorious recent disappointments:
- Green Lantern — opened to $53.1 million in 2011 (roughly $78.7 million adjusted for inflation)
- Shazam! — opened to $53.5 million in 2019 (roughly $69.7 million adjusted)
- The Flash — opened to $55.1 million in 2023
- Black Adam — opened to $67 million in 2022
The Flash comparison is the one that stands out.
That film is widely regarded as one of DC’s bigger box office misfires, and it still opened higher than Supergirl‘s current projection.
Green Lantern and Black Adam are likewise benchmarks for DC releases that underdelivered, and once inflation is factored in, all four cleared where Supergirl is now tracking.
It’s worth noting these were three-day domestic openings, so they’re a direct, apples-to-apples comparison to Supergirl‘s projected debut.
Also recall that James Gunn and Peter Safran took over following Black Adam flopping and the plan to bring back Henry Cavill as Superman. The Flash was also setting up the return of Ben Affleck as Batman, which Gunn reportedly changed.
The Total Run May Equal Superman’s Opening Weekend
Here’s the number that stings: Box Office Theory projects Supergirl to finish its entire domestic run at $125 million, the exact figure Superman (2025) earned in its opening weekend alone.
David Corenswet’s Superman went on to gross more than $600 million worldwide off that $125 million domestic start.
For Supergirl, that same $125 million is now the projected ceiling for its whole theatrical life in the U.S.
The Projection Keeps Sliding
The estimate has been trending down as release approaches; earlier tracking had Supergirl opening around $55 million, and Box Office Theory‘s revised figure now drops that further.
It lines up with the rest of the picture we’ve been tracking. The latest audience data shows interest stuck flat while awareness climbs, presales have been running behind comparable titles, and the math on whether the film can reach break-even only gets tougher as the opening number comes down.
Supergirl on shaky ground
These are projections, not results. Tracking estimates can move in either direction in the final stretch, and a strong presale surge or positive word of mouth could push the opening above the current forecast.
Supergirl also enters a crowded summer corridor that makes the number harder to read. Toy Story 5 opens the week prior, and Disney’s Moana hits July 10, followed by Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Spider-Man: Brand New Day swings in at the end of July.
But with the estimate falling rather than rising this close to release, the trend isn’t the one DC Studios was hoping for.
Supergirl opens in theaters June 26.
