Exactly as I predicted, the Superman estimates are coming in around $90 million to $125 million for the opening weekend box office.
There were wild claims of around $175 million.
Early Tracking Paints a Murky Picture for Superman, Fantastic Four, and Jurassic World
As I went over about the early tracking for Jurassic World Rebirth, which is estimated to open to a franchise low of around $115 million to $135 million, James Gunn’s Superman seems similar and even the same can be said for Marvel’s Fantastic Four (estimates have yet to be released).
The fact is, people just aren’t buying tickets early. The hardcore fans buy up the early previews and such, but first Friday and Saturday screenings are empty for all those movies. So how are you going to estimate a big opening when no tickets have been sold?
Deadline adds another tracking outlet says the Superman opening could be on track for an opening of $125M-$145M, so we see the estimates are all over the place.
Strong Brand, Weak Demand
The site also points to various data, which I don’t think means a lick, but that’s what the industry goes by to measure these things.
Superman Tops in Brand Recognition, But Does It Matter?
It’s said Superman benefits from strong brand recognition, scoring a 30 in “unaided awareness,” which means moviegoers can name it when unprompted and asked what they want to see.
It’s noted the number is even higher than Top Gun: Maverick ($126.7M opening), but it’s questioned: so what?
“Must-See” Numbers Put Superman Behind Recent Superhero Openers
The site claims the more telling metric is first choice – the “must-see” category – that indicates whether people are actually willing to leave the couch.
In that metric, Superman trails other post-COVID superhero releases like Thor: Love and Thunder ($144.1M), The Batman ($134M), and Gunn’s own Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($118.4M).
Superman’s First Choice Score Trails Cap 4 and The Batman by a Wide Margin
If you also go by “first see,” things for Gunn’s Superman sound really bad, worse than Captain America: Brave New World, which mega-bombed so bad a the box office that Disney named it in its investor report as being a loss for them.
Captain America: Brave New World had a first choice score 71% higher than Superman‘s at the same stage, and it only opened to $88.8M. Superman also trails The Batman (2022) by 64% in first choice interest.
Again, I have to question if this type of data even matters as The Batman nearly doubled Cap 4’s box office and opened to a much higher weekend with $134M.
Superman Still Has a Shot—If Gunn Delivers the Right Movie
Also just as I have said, it seems fans are waiting on reviews before they buy tickets.
Of course as we saw with Minecraft, any of the movies could explode at the box office if it brings in the fans. Right now, of the three, my bets are on Gunn’s Superman. It’s marketing and social media campaigns have really picked up. The actors are all likeable. The flick looks bright, colorful, fun and heroic. There seems to be a lot of hype and more than both JWR and FF. Gunn just has to come through with a good movie and not push his politics.
Release info
Superman flies into theaters on July 11. Starring includes David Corenswet as Clark Kent/Superman, Rachel Brosnahan as Lois Lane, and Nicholas Hoult as Lex Luthor, and introduces new DC characters and heroes played by Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Edi Gathegi, and Anthony Carrigan.
