Amid those articles that 28 Years Later is a “big success,” as I said, it’s actually quite the opposite, as the flick is lining up to potentially lose $100 million. That could now mean the trilogy might not happen.
What’s interesting is that previous to its release when it was estimated to open to as high as $45 million, 28 Years Later was said to have a budget of $75 million.
However, once the opening tanked with only $30 million, somehow those estimates were magically revised down to $60 million. Similar “reporting” has happened with Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts, both also bombs.
If we take that original $75 million budget, the industry standard for the break-even number is a 2.5x, meaning 28 Years Later would need to bring in $225 million, but it’s not coming close to that.
Box office plummets
Following its disappointing opening, the box office plummets in weekend two by -68%. Estimates have it going from the $30 million opening to only $9.5 million.
As of Sunday, 28 Years Later will be at about $50M, domestically.
Internationally, it’s also not doing well, opening to $30M. Numbers for week two have yet to be reported but it’s safe to say they won’t be good.
If 28 Years Later finishes with around a $125 million worldwide box office, that’s a loss of $100M.
Even if it manages to hit $150 million, that’s still a $75 million loss.
Sunday update: Contrary to what is being reported, 28 Years Later hasn’t hit a franchise best yet. 28 Days Later brought in over $133.92 million back in 2002. You have to factor in inflation after 23 years.
28 Years Later is now at a $103M box office.
7/14 Update: After its fourth weekend, the worldwide box office is only at $138,373,606, which is still short of the lower $150M break-even number ($60M budget x 2.5), assuming that is even true.
What happened?
28 Years Later actually had great Thursday preview numbers, higher than both Sinners and Final Destination: Bloodlines, but things fell apart as the weekend progressed, which likely had to do with word-of-mouth.
As I went over in my review, the first hour is a 10/10, but then things completely fall apart as the film pivots into some sort of weird feminist pseudo-zombie flick. Audiences seem to agree with me, as the fan score on Rotten Tomatoes is only 64%.
Trilogy in doubt?
Regarding the trilogy, the sequel, Bone Temple, is definitely getting released. It’s already been filmed with director Nia DaCosta, who directed The Marvels. The release date is January 16, 2026.
However, the third movie isn’t guaranteed.
Speaking with Variety, writer Alex Garland made it clear the trilogy is still just a possibility, not a lock. Garland said the movie, “and in a way the whole trilogy, if we ever get to make it as a trilogy,” explores themes of nostalgia and distorted memory. That “if” makes it clear: a third film depends on how this one performs, and right now, it’s obvious the box office isn’t helping its chances.
