Is another MCU bomb on the way from Marvel with the upcoming Thunderbolts movie?
If the box office tracking estimates are anything to go by, Thunderbolts looks to be in trouble, even worse than Captain America: Brave New World which bombed and is among the lowest-grossing MCU movies. But on the bright side, things don’t look to be as bad as The Marvels.
The Thunderbolts tracking is in line with Eternals and Shang-Chi, both of which finished with around $400 million worldwide grosses — not good. The tracking also shows that Thunderbolts could have the second-worst MCU opening of all time.
What are the box office estimates for Thunderbolts?
We get estimates via THR and Box Office Pro.
According to THR, Thunderbolts is currently tracking with a box office estimate between $63 million and $77 million, with a target number of $70 million.
Box Office Pro has a greater range and says Thunderbolts is tracking anywhere from a low of $65 million to a high of $85 million.
As both sites note, it’s still early as Thunderbolts gets released in about a month, so marketing could also move the needle forward.
Word of mouth from fans more important than ever
Tickets are now on sale. A quick check of local theaters for Thursday previews reveals lots of empty seats, and for Friday, basically nothing has been sold.
It’s likely this will again be the type of movie where fans wait for word-of-mouth. A Minecraft Movie recently exploded at the box office thanks to social media, but presales were in the gutter.
I’ve been saying over and over that word-of-mouth from fans has now become the most important factor, ahead of Rotten Tomatoes reviews from critics and even marketing from the studio. If the movie is good or fun to watch, fans will show up. From what I’ve seen so far, Thunderbolts actually looks like fun, and I’m more excited about it than I have been for any MCU movie from the past few years, save Deadpool & Wolverine and Spider-Man.
What about The Avengers?
Kevin Feige and Marvel did just confirm the Thunderbolts for Avengers: Doomsday, which some fans think is a big spoiler. However, if tracking is this low, announcing the Thunderbolts for Avengers: Doomsday can only help things.
How does Thunderbolts compare to other MCU movies?
At a target of $70 million, we see Thunderbolts is at the bottom of the MCU openings. It’s also another MCU movie said to cost upwards of $200 million, so it’s going to need to make bank to make a profit.
Here is a list of MCU opening weekends from the lowest-grossing movies from the post-Endgame era:
- Quantumania: $106,109,650
- Captain America: Brave New World: $88,842,603
- Black Widow: $80,366,312
- Shang-Chi: $75,388,688
- Eternals: $71,297,219
- Thunderbolts: $70M (target estimate)
- The Marvels: $46,110,859
Release info
Thunderbolts gets released on May 2, 2025, directed by Jake Schreier, with the screenplay by Eric Pearson and Joanna Calo.
Who stars?
Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, Wyatt Russell, Olga Kurylenko, Lewis Pullman, Geraldine Viswanathan, Chris Bauer, Wendell Pierce, David Harbour, Hannah John-Kamen, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
Plot
Marvel Studios assembles an unconventional team of antiheroes—Yelena Belova, Bucky Barnes, Red Guardian, Ghost, Taskmaster and John Walker. After finding themselves ensnared in a death trap set by Valentina Allegra de Fontaine, these disillusioned castoffs must embark on a dangerous mission that will force them to confront the darkest corners of their pasts. Will this dysfunctional group tear themselves apart, or find redemption and unite as something much more before it’s too late?
Behind the movie
Kevin Feige is the producer. Executive producers include Louis D’Esposito, Brian Chapek, and Jason Tamez.
