Matt Belloni is not sold on Supergirl, and if his box office outlook is anywhere close, Warner Bros. and DC Studios could have another problem on their hands.
On The Town’s 2026 Summer Blockbuster Confidence Ranking, thePuck News founder gave Supergirl one of the lowest scores on the board and said he expects the movie to make only around $300 million to $350 million worldwide.
That could be a major issue depending on the budget.
Using the industry standard 2.5x break-even rule, if Supergirl costs around $150 million, it would need roughly $375 million worldwide to break even. A $300 million global finish would put it about $75 million short.
If the budget is closer to $200 million, Supergirl would need around $500 million worldwide to break even. In that case, a $300 million finish could mean a loss of $200 million or more.
Matt Belloni Gives Supergirl A 2 Out Of 13
Belloni ranked Supergirl near the bottom of the 13 summer movies being discussed, placing it at No. 2 on his confidence scale (with thirteen being the highest).
“Supergirl, June 26th. I have this as a two. I am not confident,” Belloni said.
He added that he liked James Gunn’s Superman, which opened to $125 million and finished with $618 million worldwide, but the Supergirl footage shown at CinemaCon did not win him over.
“I was open to it. I enjoyed the Superman movie last summer. It got to 618 worldwide and opened to 125. But the footage they showed at CinemaCon, not great,” Belloni said. “Seems like lesser and kind of a, you know, IP milking. So, I am dropping this to a two.”
That is not exactly a glowing endorsement for the next DCU movie after Superman.
Scott Mendelson Is A Little More Optimistic
Scott Mendelson was not as down on Supergirl as Belloni, but he also did not sound blown away.
Mendelson gave the movie a 5 out of 13.
“Um, I’m not that much more confident in that it’s a five,” Mendelson said. “The only reason I’m slightly, and again, I was not thrilled about the footage at CinemaCon.”
He said the movie looked expensive enough, but the footage did not have much breathing room.
“The production values was there. It just felt very chaotic and busy in a way that just let them breathe,” Mendelson said.
Belloni then jumped in with, “Lame.”
Mendelson agreed, “Yeah. Yeah.
Belloni added, “But not nothing cool about it.”
Budget Talk Lines Up With What We Heard At WonderCon
Mendelson also addressed the budget and pushed back against the idea that Supergirl is some ultra-cheap DC movie.
“I know this is cheaper than Superman. I was assured that it was not like a Daredevil to Elektra come down in terms of budget,” Mendelson said.
That lines up with what our insiders told us at WonderCon.
There had been speculation that Supergirl might only cost around $100 million, which would make a $300 million to $350 million worldwide finish less damaging. But Mendelson’s comments suggest the budget is not that low.
If Supergirl is closer to $150 million or $200 million, the math changes fast.
At $150 million, the movie would likely need around $375 million worldwide to break even. At $200 million, it would likely need around $500 million. That means Belloni’s $300 million to $350 million estimate would not be enough.
Supergirl Will Be Sold As Female-Driven Superhero Meets John Wick
The hosts also discussed how Warner Bros. and DC Studios are expected to market the movie.
“They’re going to sell this as, you know, female driven superhero meets John Wick,” Mendelson said.
Alcock previously revealed Krypto is not a real dog but CGI, which drew laughs from the hosts.
Box Office Expectations Sound Muted
The big question is how much Supergirl can make.
Mendelson said that if Supergirl is well received and well reviewed, $500 million worldwide would be a win.
“If it does 500, everyone should be happy because again, this isn’t the 2010s where a studio lives or dies of the superhero franchises,” Mendelson said.
Belloni, however, sees the ceiling much lower.
“I think we’re looking more like 300, 350 for this one,” Belloni said. “Which I think is a, you know, half of Superman. Not great.”
