The number for the Captain Marvel second Friday box office is in, which is estimated to be $19,047,000, down 69.1% from its opening Friday.
While that may sound like cause for concern (or celebration), the percentage is actually a lower drop than Guardians of the Galaxy 2, which saw a 70.6% drop for its second Friday compared to its own opening Friday. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 went on to make over $863 million worldwide.
The percentage drop doesn’t normally continue on to Saturday, as there is an uptick in ticket sales. For example, Guardians of the Galaxy 2 suffered a 45.7% drop on its second Saturday compared to its opening Saturday, and a 46.6% drop for its second Sunday.
If we apply Guardians of the Galaxy 2’s numbers to Captain Marvel, the Brie Larson-starring film could have a 55.5% drop for the weekend, which would give it around a $68 million second weekend debut.
Worth a note is that Captain Marvel has a higher drop over its opening weekend than what Guardians of the Galaxy 2 did, so Captain Marvel‘s second-weekend box office could come in a bit lower if the numbers stay the same.
For example, GOTG 2 saw only an 8.5% drop from its opening Friday to Saturday, but Captain Marvel saw a 14.3% drop. GOTG 2 then had a 23.7% drop from Saturday to Sunday, with Captain Marvel having a 26.5% drop.
Note: I’ve been comparing Captain Marvel to Guardians of the Galaxy 2 because the numbers are pretty similar (GOTG 2 $146.5M opening weekend; CM $153.4M).
The current box office numbers for Captain Marvel:
(numbers via Amazon’s Box Office Mojo)