Prior to the release of Captain Marvel, I did state it would have a big box office, and I also questioned if it would have any legs. Now we might be getting the answer to that question.
I’ve been comparing the box office numbers of Captain Marvel with Guardians of the Galaxy 2 as the two films debuted with similar opening weekend numbers, with Captain Marvel tracking about 7% better than Guardians 2. However, things have changed this weekend and as of Monday, as now Captain Marvel is coming in with lower numbers than Guardians 2, which could mean the movie may not have any legs (meaning long term value).
It also seems true in what I have guessed in that given a little competition, Captain Marvel will drop. We see with Jordan Peele’s Us having debuted this past weekend that audiences have forgotten Brie Larson and Carol Danvers. Disney and Marvel are probably grateful WB held back Shazam! until April 5. Recall back in December of 2017, Dwayne Johnson’s Jumanji ended up overtaking Disney’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
Regarding the Captain Marvel numbers, this past Sunday saw the Captain Marvel numbers drop below Guardians of the Galaxy 2 for the first time, with $10,025,438 for CM compared to GOTG 2’s $10,985,538. Likewise on Monday, saw CM with $2,896,405 to GOTG 2’s $3,597,323.
What was once a +7% in favor of Captain Marvel, now for Sunday and Monday has turned into a -11.39% drop in favor of Guardians of the Galaxy 2. Quite a swing, but I will admit it’s only for a couple of days, so we will have to see numbers for subsequent days.
I’ll also add that I have been right all along in regards to my statement that Captain Marvel wouldn’t do as well as hoped in the U.S. (especially compared to Black Panther), but that it would do well internationally. It’s just a simple fact that more people in the world are going to see movies, so if Captain Marvel does happen to hit the magic billion dollar mark (fast becoming less magical, obviously), it doesn’t mean the flick is comparable to The Dark Knight, just that more people are going to see movies.
So is there cause for worry? I think so.
Imagine if Captain Marvel didn’t debut between Infinity War or Avengers: Endgame? Or if it wasn’t marketed as directly connecting to Endgame? There is no doubt it would be a huge disaster. It’s also probably safe to say that if Ant-Man and the Wasp – or any Marvel movie – was marketed similar and released between Infinity War and Endgame that it would have a high box office. So what happens when there is no more “Avengers?” Kevin Feige and Disney really expect Brie Larson and Captain Marvel to be the new face of the MCU? This is Phase 4 going forward? Good luck.