Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Expected To Drop Big

A big test for Marvel is coming up with the second weekend box office of Captain America: Brave New World.

The first four-day weekend overperformed, bringing in $100 million. However, it looks to be exactly as I predicted, that many fans showed up just to see for themselves whether the movie was any good. Personally, I thought that, for what it is, the flick wasn’t all bad. I wasn’t expecting much, but it turned out to be a lot of fun. Others feel the same, though most fans lean toward the negative side. The Rotten Tomatoes audience score currently sits at 80%, which is low for a CBM. Keep in mind that Rotten Tomatoes only counts verified purchases through the Fandango app, so the real score is probably lower.

What are the estimates for the second weekend?

Deadline’s estimates for the second weekend have actually dropped from over $30 million to the mid-to-high $20 million range. If Captain America: Brave New World pulls in $29 million, that would mark a roughly 67% drop—but it could be even worse if it comes in lower (Quantumania dropped 69.9%, and The Marvels holds the largest drop at $78.1%).

Saturday update: The latest estimates are offering Captain America: Brave New World will have a 68% second-weekend drop of $28.1M (from the first weekend’s 3-day $88.8M).

Comparing to Quantumania

Captain America: Brave New World is tracking closely with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which was heavily front-loaded in its first week but quickly collapsed afterward. In fact, Brave New World is actually underperforming compared to Quantumania. If this trend continues, I’d say it’ll be lucky to reach $400 million—currently, it’s performing about 15% below Quantumania. Reports suggest the film needs at least $425 million to break even (which is believed to be a conservative estimate), so it’s looking like another big flop for Kevin Feige.

Here are some numbers:

• Captain America: Brave New World opened to a 4-day $100M, Quantumania to $120.3M.
• Brave New World is estimated at best to bring in $29M for weekend two (now said to be $28.1M for a 68% drop), Quantumania brought in nearly $32 million for a 69.9% drop.
• Quantumania finished with $476M worldwide: $214.5M domestically, $261.5 internationally.
• Captain America: Brave New World currently is at $113M domestic, $98.2M international (numbers will go up this weekend): Update: $141,205,738 domestic / $148,200,000 international / $289,405,738 worldwide

Dailies

Cap / Quant

• Friday $40,912,377 / $46,431,851
• Saturday $27,719,411 / $33,903,657
• Sunday $20,210,815 / $25,774,142
• Monday (Presidents’ Day) $11,178,411 / $14,284,967
• Tuesday $6,320,276 / $7,078,521
• Wednesday $3,419,116 / $3,859,533
• Thursday $3,245,332 / $3,781,913
• Friday $7,200,000  / $8,329,121
• Saturday $12,800,000 / $14,629,621
• Sunday $8,200,000 / $9,006,061

After first ten days (two weekends)

$141,205,738 / $167,079,387