With James Cameron offering he needs Star Wars box office numbers for Avatar 2 to break even, if that is indeed the case, just like the weekend box office, the first Monday is not looking good at all.
Avatar 2’s first Monday only brought in an estimated $16 million, while Star Wars: The Force Awakens released around the same time back in 2015 brought in a massive $40 million.
Last year’s Spider-Man: No Way Home which made over $1.9 billion also brought in over $37 million for its first Monday.
Why compare Avatar 2 to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever?
The trades, especially Deadline, continue to spin things as Deadline is comparing Avatar 2’s first Monday to that of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s $11 million for some reason, and worth a mention is that Wakanda Forever is in no way coming close to $2 billion or even a billion dollars at the box office.
The only good comparison I can come up with regarding Avatar 2 and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is that both films have failed to live up to the original and are disappointments at the box office, so maybe that’s the reason.
However, it really doesn’t even make sense to compare Avatar 2 to Wakanda Forever as now that the Holidays are here, schools are on recess and such, and since the first flick is the number one movie of all time, wouldn’t it be best to compare Avatar 2 to the first movie and to similar flicks such as Star Wars and Spider-Man that were released at the same time and have hit that magic billion dollar number (and are more current movies)?
Star Wars: The Force Awakens had a domestic haul of over $936 million, Spider-Man: No Way Home over $800 million, and Wakanda Forever? Presently at around $420 million.
The first Avatar released in 2009 did only have a domestic box office of $785 million, but it made over $2.1 billion internationally — no movie has come close to that since Avengers: Endgame, and I think it’s safe to say The Way of the Water is no Endgame or even the first Avatar.
I believe Avatar 2 is already underperforming internationally as well, including in China where the first movie brought in over $261 million as the sequel estimates are lower than first reported.
The trades are also arguing the Marvel movies and such are frontloaded and that Avatar 2 will have legs, but if it going to reach Star Wars or Spider-Man numbers at the box office, it’s going to need massive legs to get anywhere near those flicks let alone the first movie.
I’ll believe it when it happens.