Variety has now confirmed what I just said and was already clear from the weekend numbers: Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is collapsing at the box office.
The film earned only $6.5 million on its second Friday, a 70% drop from opening day. Rival studio estimates now have the movie heading toward a $25 million second weekend, down from earlier projections of $40 million.
For a theatrical Star Wars release built around Disney’s most consistent modern Star Wars property, that’s a complete disaster.
Franchise is in worse shape
The Mandalorian and Grogu were the rare Disney Star Wars duo that fans actually embraced. If that movie can’t hold, the franchise is in worse shape than even the skeptics thought.
I covered the collapse in my previous report, noting that Mando and Grogu were losing to low-budget horror movies. Variety has now confirmed it with hard numbers from the trades.
The question now is what Disney does about it.
The answer is obvious: stop avoiding Luke Skywalker.
Disney Still Has A Luke Skywalker Problem
When Disney bought Lucasfilm in 2012, fans expected one thing above all else: they wanted to see what happened to Luke Skywalker after Return of the Jedi.
The old Expanded Universe had already spent decades building that story. Luke rebuilt the Jedi Order. He faced new threats. He became the Jedi Master fans always expected him to become. He married Mara Jade. He had a family. He became the heart of the post-Return of the Jedi era.
Then The Force Awakens turned Luke into a mystery box. The Last Jedi turned him into a broken hermit who threw away his lightsaber, considered killing his nephew, and died alone after projecting himself across the galaxy.
Fans never forgave that, and they didn’t forget.
The damage The Last Jedi did to Luke Skywalker is a big reason Disney Star Wars has struggled to win back the audience. Rian Johnson and Kathleen Kennedy’s decision to deconstruct the most beloved character in the franchise – instead of telling the story fans had waited for since 1983 – broke trust with the fanbase.
Disney later got a reminder of what fans actually wanted when Luke returned in The Mandalorian and The Book of Boba Fett. His appearance with Grogu became one of the biggest moments of the Disney+ Star Wars era.
Fans wanted more.
Disney still hasn’t given it to them.
Kathleen Kennedy’s Strategy Failed
Kathleen Kennedy’s Lucasfilm spent years pushing new diverse characters while pushing the original trilogy heroes to the side.
Han Solo was killed. Luke was broken. Leia flies in space. There was never the reunion fans wanted. And the new characters were supposed to carry Star Wars forward.
It didn’t happen.
Rey’s trilogy ended without creating a strong successor franchise. Finn was wasted. Poe never became a major draw. The Acolyte was met with laughter and canceled after one season. Now, The Mandalorian and Grogu, built around characters fans actually liked (for two seasons at least), is bombing at the box office.
Whatever the reason Lucasfilm avoided a real Luke Skywalker project, the strategy didn’t work.
There is a generation of Star Wars fans who would show up tomorrow for a movie or Disney+ series about Luke after Return of the Jedi. They’ve been asking for it for years. Disney just refuses to pull the trigger.
The Source Material Is Already There
The most frustrating part is that Disney doesn’t need to invent the story from scratch.
The old Expanded Universe, now called Legends, already gave Lucasfilm decades of material to pull from.
Timothy Zahn’s Thrawn trilogy gave Luke a major post-Return of the Jedi arc. The Jedi Academy novels showed him rebuilding the Jedi Order. The New Jedi Order series put Luke at the center of a massive galaxy-wide conflict. Mara Jade remains one of the most popular characters Disney has never used properly.
Disney has already mined Legends for characters and ideas. Thrawn is back. Heir to the Empire has been referenced. Ahsoka has pulled from that material.
So why not Luke?
The material is sitting there. The fan interest is there. The franchise needs a win.
Sebastian Stan Is The Obvious Casting Choice
There is also an obvious casting choice: Sebastian Stan as a younger Luke Skywalker.
Fans have been pushing the idea for years because Stan looks like a young Mark Hamill. The fan art has been all over social media. But this isn’t just a fan-casting meme anymore.
Jon Favreau was asked about Sebastian Stan playing Luke during the Mandalorian and Grogu press tour, and he didn’t shoot it down.
“I mean, he looks like him a lot, doesn’t he?” Favreau said. “I know fans have been asking for, they’ve been suggesting and showing fan art of Sebastian Stan fan art as Luke. He’s a great actor. Certainly, he’s done great work in the MCU as well, but think… it’s a really interesting idea.”
That’s the director of The Mandalorian and Grogu publicly calling the idea “really interesting.”
Not dismissing it. Not laughing it off. Not giving the usual corporate non-answer. Favreau also brought back Luke in the Disney+ shows.
Stan also makes sense beyond the resemblance. His run as the Winter Soldier appears to be winding down, and he has been doing more serious dramatic work. He has the look, the acting chops, and the fan support to carry a real Luke Skywalker project.
What Disney Should Do Next
Disney should greenlight a Luke Skywalker project ASAP.
Cast Sebastian Stan. Set it between Return of the Jedi and the sequel trilogy. Pull from the Legends material fans already love. Let Luke rebuild the Jedi Order. Let him fight Imperial remnants. Bring in Mara Jade. Show fans the Luke Skywalker they waited decades to see.
The Mandalorian and Grogu numbers show audiences won’t automatically show up for diluted Star Wars anymore. The reaction to Luke’s Disney+ appearances showed they will show up for the real thing.
The actor is there. The source material is there. The audience is there.
The only thing missing is the decision.
Disney Can’t Keep Avoiding The Obvious
If Disney lets The Mandalorian and Grogu collapse without changing course, the next Star Wars theatrical release will face an even more skeptical audience.
The franchise has spent years trying to move past Luke Skywalker while still living off the original trilogy’s legacy. That contradiction has finally caught up with Lucasfilm.
Star Wars has the answer sitting right in front of it.
Give fans Luke Skywalker.
Give them the post-Return of the Jedi story they wanted in the first place.
Give them Sebastian Stan as Luke.
At this point, the roadblock doesn’t look like money, source material, or casting.
It looks like pride.
But Star Wars doesn’t have time for that anymore.
The Mandalorian and Grogu just proved it.
