The Mandalorian & Grogu is now tracking for an $80 million-plus four-day Memorial Day weekend opening, according to the latest box office estimates.
That is a big drop from earlier long-range tracking, which floated a possible $90 million to $100 million domestic opening. We said at the time that number looked overly optimistic, especially based on the softer audience tracking and what ticket sales appeared to show.
Now the estimate looks a lot closer to reality.
Could Open Lower Than Solo
If The Mandalorian & Grogu opens around $80 million-plus across the four-day holiday frame, that would make it the lowest-opening Star Wars movie ever.
The current low belongs to Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $103 million over its four-day Memorial Day weekend back in 2018. Solo went on to become one of the biggest disappointments in the history of the franchise, so that is not the comparison Disney and Lucasfilm want.
For a brand that once dominated the box office, opening below Solo would be a rough return to theaters.
The Softer Tracking Lines Up With Earlier Concerns
The lower estimate also fits with the softer audience awareness we recently covered.
The Mandalorian & Grogu had an awareness score of 47 and an interest score of 48, which did not exactly scream $100 million opening. By comparison, Mortal Kombat II had a higher awareness score of 50 and an interest score of 52, while still being estimated much lower.
That made the original $100 million forecast look high from the start.
It also matched what we saw when checking pre-sale seats on Fandango, where plenty of theaters still had lots of empty seats for Thursday previews and Friday opening day.
Disney Is Still Pushing The IMAX Angle
Disney and Lucasfilm are not sitting back.
IMAX and Lucasfilm are holding a special May the 4th fan event at select IMAX theaters around the world, giving fans more than 25 minutes of never-before-seen footage from The Mandalorian & Grogu.
The event takes place Monday, May 4, at 7:00 p.m. local time. Attendees will also receive a limited-edition mini poster at the theater. Fans are being told to arrive early, with seating expected before the event starts promptly at 7:00 p.m.
That event is clearly designed to build more buzz before opening weekend. Disney wants The Mandalorian & Grogu to feel like a theatrical Star Wars event, not just an extended episode of the Disney+ series.
