Following a strong preview opening, the Superman box office now appears to be slowing down, at least according to the latest estimates.
I can’t help but notice it’s playing out a lot like Man of Steel in 2013, which also opened big but quickly lost momentum amid mixed reactions.
What are the latest Superman box office estimates?
Following the better-than-expected Tuesday and Thursday previews, late Thursday night into early Friday morning, estimates surged, with projections reaching as high as $130 million, or even more. The Wrap was even calling for a $175 million opening at one point (obviously way off).
But by Saturday morning, the trades revised their estimates down to $115–$121 million. Deadline also noted that rival studios see it coming in even lower.
Superman vs The Batman
It’s worth pointing out that Superman’s Thursday previews ($22.5M) beat The Batman’s ($21.6M), which in theory should’ve meant Superman would continue strong and top The Batman’s $134M opening.
But now that Superman is expected to come in under that number, it clearly means fewer people showed up over the weekend. And it’s only Saturday afternoon—so how are the trades already lowering their estimates?
It must mean Friday turnout was weaker than expected. The Friday total includes the Tuesday and Thursday previews, and Superman is said to have pulled in $56.5M. The Batman narrowly beat that with $56.6M on its first Friday. It’s a small difference, but it signals a downward trend for Superman that the industry believes points to a lower opening weekend overall.
What about Man of Steel?
Unfair to compare
I don’t think it’s fair to compare Gunn’s Superman to the Man of Steel opening. Snyder had the advantage of following Christopher Nolan’s billion-dollar Dark Knight trilogy, while Gunn is coming in after the DCEU collapsed under a string of failures, including The Flash.
Nolan also executive produced Man of Steel, and Dark Knight writer David S. Goyer handled the screenplay. Snyder directing was seen as Nolan giving him his blessing, which is true. I’ve been told Nolan personally chose Snyder over Matt Reeves for the job.
Man of Steel failed to hits its mark
You could argue that Man of Steel was actually a bigger failure, considering all the talent involved, and it still missed the mark. I was told WB wanted it to hit a billion like the Nolan films. It had a strong opening, and there was immediate talk of a sequel, but once the reactions hit, that was scrapped in favor of bringing in Batman.
The original plan was a solo Batman movie featuring a younger Bruce Wayne in his second year as a hero. Sound familiar? Man of Steel 2 was also on the table, along with solo movies for The Flash, Aquaman, and Wonder Woman, all leading into Justice League. But Man of Steel didn’t perform as expected, and the plan changed. We all know how that turned out.
Man of Steel vs Superman reactions
Getting back to the reactions to Superman and Man of Steel, while the Snyder Bros are already celebrating Man of Steel beating James Gunn’s box office (though it’s not even close when adjusted for inflation, Man of Steel opened to $160.9M and finished with $924.7M in today’s dollars, which would be huge), the responses to both films are pretty similar. And that’s not a good thing.
I remember how many fans took issue with Man of Steel—the excessive violence, how Snyder handled Pa Kent, the Zod neck snap. Prominent Superman fans publicly criticized the movie. Fans were arguing online constantly.
The same thing is happening now with Gunn’s Superman. That didn’t happen with The Batman.
Some fans like the tone, others don’t. Some don’t like how Superman is portrayed. A lot of people are hung up on the Jor-El thing (which I think is overblown and won’t last). Others take issue with the villains, the ending cameo, and more. Then there are the politics. Both sides are arguing against the film. On the flip side, plenty of fans enjoy the fast pace, the comic book vibe, and the broader DCU setup.
But just like with Man of Steel, Gunn’s Superman is splitting the audience—people either love it or hate it. That’s a problem, especially for a first movie meant to kick off a new universe and generate excitement for what’s next.
Superman box office reflecting fan split sentiment
Now the Superman box office seems to be reflecting that split. If it follows the same trajectory as Man of Steel, we’re looking at a steep drop in week two—Man of Steel fell 64.6%—and likely continued declines. It’s clear this won’t come close to Man of Steel’s numbers when adjusted for inflation.
At this point, is the best-case scenario just hoping Gunn’s movie breaks even at around $560 million? That’s not exactly encouraging. And what does that mean for Supergirl, the next DCU film? Or Clayface? Or the future of the DCU in general?
There was hope that Gunn’s Superman could save the superhero genre, but just like the hope missing from his movie, it might already be gone. Read my review here (I like it).
