The battle for Warner Bros. Discovery just escalated again. Paramount and Skydance—backed by the Ellison family—are now telling insiders they’re increasingly confident they’ll beat Netflix’s offer, according to a new report from NY Post’s Charles Gasparino.
Gasparino says Paramount is prepared to raise its bid high enough to easily cover the $2.8 billion breakup fee. More importantly, he reports that Paramount believes shareholders will side with them once the dust settles.
Despite chatter in the press, Gasparino also says government concerns about the Trump administration opposing the Paramount-Skydance offer are “way overblown.” The real concern in D.C. is Netflix controlling one-third of the entire streaming market, something regulators are watching closely.
BREAKING: @paramountco @Skydance increasingly confident it will prevail over @netflix with @wbd shareholders, given preliminary talks, and media industry insiders expect that it will likely increase its bid to easily cover the $2.8 billion break-up fee, which it calculates to be around $1 a share, and likely more. My government sources say media reports of Trump administration animus to the $PSKY bid is way overblown. The real worry is @netflix controlling 1/3 of the streaming market as it has been. The big winner: David Zaslav who is likely going to get his shareholders an extra buck (after the breakup fee is paid), with an Ellison bid closer to $32 a share. As one deal insider put it (quoting Tom Hagen’s assessment of Hyman Roth’s move against Michael Corleone) “Zaslav played this one beautifully.”
Six Sweetened Bids and Gulf Money Behind Paramount
Puck News’ Bill Cohan also reported on the ongoing battle and revealed that the Ellisons have now sweetened their Paramount-backed offer six times since the takeover effort began in September—an effort backed by deep foreign capital, exactly as our insiders have told us.
According to Cohan:
Larry Ellison is putting up nearly $12 billion.
Another $24 billion is coming from Saudi Arabia (PIF), Qatar, and Abu Dhabi. All three agreed to invest without board seats or governance rights, likely to avoid a Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States review. However, two Democrats have since demanded that Paramount Skydance submit reports over what they feel are “serious national security concerns.”
Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners is providing another $200 million, mostly via Saudi money. Kushner is Trump’s son-in-law.
RedBird, a private investment firm, stepped in to fill the $1 billion gap after Tencent — the massive Chinese tech conglomerate — pulled out of the deal.
Paramount has also secured $54 billion in debt commitments from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Apollo.
Bottom line: The Ellisons have the cash, the backers, and the structure to close the deal—and they’re signaling they’ll keep raising. Cohan suggests raising their offer to $34 a share would seal the deal.
Update: Reports are coming in that Paramount may lift its bid to $35 a share, per Gasparino.
Netflix’s Position Weakens
On paper, Netflix has a massive $59 billion bridge facility to fund its bid. But its stock price is approaching a yearly low since announcing the deal, raising questions about how stable that war chest actually is.
Puck suggests Netflix’s stock is now in danger of falling into junk-rated territory, which would make a takeover of WBD far more expensive—and far more complicated.
If Netflix can’t stabilize its share price, its entire structure for buying WBD becomes shaky.
The Clock Is Ticking Toward December 22
The next key milestone: December 22 — WBD must formally respond to Paramount’s hostile tender offer.
Shareholders will finally hear whether Zaslav and the board recommend:
- Accepting Paramount’s all-cash bid
- Sticking with Netflix
- Or forcing both sides to raise their offers even further
Given WBD’s stock movement and the tone from both reporters, Wall Street believes Paramount isn’t done raising the price.
What started as a straightforward acquisition has now turned into a full-scale corporate brawl driven by billionaires, sovereign wealth funds, global bankers, and a Hollywood studio fighting to survive.
And if Gasparino and Cohan are right, the Ellisons are outmuscling Netflix at every step.
