UPDATE: The box office collapse now has a price tag, with analyst Dan Murrell modeling a projected $244.3 million theatrical loss he calls a “box office catastrophe” with no way to spin it.
The second weekend is when an opening stops being a debate and becomes a verdict, and Supergirl‘s verdict is in. Nobody came back.
July 8 update: Actuals for the second weekend were reported as $8,600,46, a 76.8% drop.
Sunday update: Per THR, the estimates are even lower, now at $8.5 million, representing an 80% drop.
Saturday update: Supergirl is looking lower at only $9 million with a 76% drop, with a global cume of only $89 million.
Per Deadline’s Friday estimates, Supergirl is heading for a $10 million second weekend, a 73% nosedive from its opening. That drops it to fourth place, and its ten-day domestic total will sit around $48.8 million by Sunday.
Fourth place is its own story. Supergirl didn’t just lose to Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5, the family juggernauts.
It lost to Young Washington, the Angel Studios historical biopic projected at $15 million, which is beating it with an estimated $20M.
A faith-based indie about the Father of Our Country, one critics only shrugged at while audiences scored it 92%, is outdrawing a $170 million DC tentpole in its second weekend.
Audiences keep telling Hollywood what they want, and it keeps not being this. And lines up exactly as our insiders just said about Disney and Netflix.
The drop in context
A 80% second-weekend drop puts Supergirl in very specific company.
It is now worse than The Flash (-72.5%) and only barely beats Joker: Folie a Deux‘s 81% collapse. It’s also worse than The Marvels at 78.1%. Line it up against the genre’s recent bombs, and it gets worse.
Supergirl‘s 80% is a steeper fall than Madame Web at 61.4%, Black Adam at 59%, Shazam! Fury of the Gods at 69%, and Birds of Prey at 48%. It’s less than Morbius at 73.8%. The only comic book disaster it holds up better than is Joker 2.
Supergirl is dropping more than The Marvels, Morbius, and The Flash. That’s the shelf it lives on now.
The math just got uglier
The collapse lands hardest on the loss projections.
Variety’s sources projected Supergirl stalling at $100 million domestic, and even that assumed what they called a decent hold.
A 80% drop is not a decent hold. It’s a catastrophic disaster.
At $48.8 million through ten days with these legs, the domestic run is now tracking well short of that, and the $200 million worldwide threshold, the line both trades say separates a big loss from an even bigger write-down, is moving out of reach. It’s also questioned if Supergirl will hit $100M worldwide by the end of the weekend.
The overseas number was already getting cut before the weekend started.
DC watched this movie test in the 60s for eight months, released it anyway, and the audience has now rendered the same score twice, once at the box office on opening weekend and again by not coming back.
Supergirl box office as of Monday July 6:
Grosses
- Domestic (57.5%): $58,610,243
- International (42.5%): $43,400,000
- Worldwide: $102,010,243
Weekend
- Jun 26-28: #2 at $37,102,018
- Jul 3-5: $8,600,461 -76.8%
Dailies
- Friday $18,401,264
- Saturday $10,800,342 -41.3%
- Sunday $7,900,412 -26.9%
- Monday $2,909,864 -63.2%
- Tuesday $4,424,752 +52.1%
- Wednesday $2,133,462 -51.8%
- Thursday: $2,301,514 +7.9%
- Friday: $3,606,419 +56.7% / -80.4%
- Saturday: $2,506,574 -30.5% / -76.8%
- Sunday: $2,487,46 -0.8% / -68.5%
- Monday: $1,138,172 -54.2% / -60.9
