The Quorum’s latest eight-week tracking chart, published by Puck, just laid out the entire back half of the summer movie season in two columns of numbers. And the story those numbers tell is a season splitting hard into haves and have-nots.
The Quorum is a box office research firm that surveys everyday moviegoers, asking two simple questions about upcoming films: “Do you know about this film?” (awareness) and “Are you interested in seeing it?” (interest).
Tracked over time, the gap between those two numbers is where the real story of a movie’s box office fate usually hides. Here’s what the chart says about every major release left this summer, from the sure things to the bomb watches.
The Sure Thing: Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Nothing else on the chart is in this tier. Spider-Man: Brand New Day posts 76 percent awareness and 68 percent interest, the highest interest score of any film tracked, and it isn’t close.
That 76-into-68 conversion is the strongest of any tentpole on the board, the survey signature of genuine four-quadrant heat. It opens July 31, and its only real problem is that Nolan has the IMAX screens locked when it does.
The Raves With a Reach Problem: The Odyssey
Christopher Nolan’s epic just drew a wave of premiere raves, but the tracking shows a film only 50 percent of the audience knows exists eleven days out.
The upside buried in the data: interest matches awareness exactly at 50, meaning nearly everyone who’s heard of it wants to see it. It’s not a desire problem, it’s a reach problem, and Universal has under two weeks and a $250 million reported budget riding on closing the gap.
The Bomb Watch: Moana
Disney’s live-action remake has the highest awareness on the chart at 80 percent, and it doesn’t matter, because interest has been frozen at 49 for a month while forecasts slide to $60 million to $70 million.
On a reported $200 million-plus budget, that’s the start of a bomb watch, with the trailer backlash now looking like it’s showing up in the survey data. Everyone’s heard of it. The wanting stopped growing.
The Record-Setter in a Small Lane: Evil Dead Burn
Opening the same day as Moana, Evil Dead Burn is tracking for a franchise-record $25 million to $35 million on a budget under $20 million.
It has the R-rated lane to itself while three family titles split the other crowd, and it’s riding a 2026 horror boom that’s produced hit after hit. Small target, potent numbers.
The Underdog Vindicated: Coyote vs. Acme
The feel-good line on the chart. The movie Warner Bros. Discovery shelved for a tax write-off before backlash forced its sale to Ketchup is now posting 43 percent interest against 26 percent awareness, the widest interest-over-awareness gap on the board.
The audience Zaslav said didn’t exist keeps showing up in the survey data ahead of the August 28 release.
The One Going the Wrong Way: The End of Oak Street
J.J. Abrams’ dinosaurs-in-suburbia thriller is the only major release on the chart whose numbers are falling, down to 19 percent awareness and sliding a month out.
The timing is brutal for Bad Robot, which is contracting as its Warner Bros. deal winds down, making this August 14 release an uncomfortable referendum on the whole enterprise.
What the Whole Board Says
Put it together and the summer has one lock (Spider-Man), one high-wire act (The Odyssey), one likely disappointment (Moana), one small winner (Evil Dead Burn), one underdog story (Coyote vs. Acme), and one warning sign (Oak Street).
The immediate test is this Friday, when Moana and Evil Dead Burn open and the first of these tracking numbers meets an actual box office result.
We’ll have the weekend numbers as they land, and the next Quorum chart when it drops. Tracking is a forecast, not a verdict. The verdicts start this weekend.
