The Quorum has run out of ways to say it.
The firm’s new eight-week tracking chart, published by Puck, opens by asking what more can possibly be said about Spider-Man: Brand New Day, before answering its own question: only something “catastrophic” keeps the movie from claiming 2026’s biggest opening.
Eleven days out, the numbers make the case.
Brand New Day posts 81 percent awareness, up another five points in two weeks, and 69 percent interest, up one.
Both are the highest scores on the entire board, and the interest gap isn’t close: nothing else on the chart cracks 52.
For the unfamiliar, The Quorum is a research outfit that polls everyday moviegoers on upcoming releases, scoring each film on awareness (have you heard of it?) and interest (do you want to see it?).
When both numbers run this high this close to release, the survey is telling you the outcome in advance.
Three Charts, One Direction
The trajectory has been a straight line up.
Awareness has marched from 70 to 76 to 81 across the last three charts, while interest held at the top of the board the entire way, still the strongest awareness-to-interest conversion of any tentpole tracked this summer.
That’s the survey engine behind the $180 million to $190 million opening projections we covered from Deadline, which would clear Toy Story 5‘s $159.6 million for the biggest debut of 2026 and rank second in franchise history behind only No Way Home‘s $260.1 million.
The presales tell the same story, the best first-day numbers since No Way Home, with advance sales trailing only that film.
The IMAX Lockout Won’t Matter
The lone asterisk remains the IMAX situation, with Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey holding those auditoriums through August 6 after opening this past weekend. Brand New Day spends its entire opening frame locked out of the format.
On these numbers, it’s a rounding error. The audience is coming regardless of screen size, and the premium-format crowd can circle back once the hold lifts in week two.
It’s also worth repeating why this is happening while the rest of the genre keeps finding the floor: a Spider-Man movie loaded with the Punisher and a savage Hulk gives the core audience a reason to show up, and the tracking has reflected it every single chart. Give people what they want and the numbers go up. It’s not complicated.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day opens July 31, directed by Destin Daniel Cretton and starring Tom Holland, Zendaya, Sadie Sink, Jon Bernthal, and Mark Ruffalo. For the rest of the chart, see our summer tracking roundup.
