UPDATE 2: Throw the projection out. Brand New Day just posted an all-time record opening day between $167 million and $173 million, with the U.S. weekend alone now estimated north of $330 million and Endgame‘s $357.1 million crown in play. Full breakdown: the record opening day numbers.
UPDATE: This projection is already conservative. China’s day one alone did roughly $37 million against the $45 million forecast for its entire weekend, with trackers now seeing $130 million to $150 million there by Sunday.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is now projected for a $465 million worldwide opening, which would stand as the second-biggest global debut in Sony’s history.
Per Deadline’s box office preview, only Spider-Man: No Way Home and its $600.5 million start ranks higher for the studio, with Brand New Day set to blow past the $381.6 million bow of 2007’s Spider-Man 3.
And the trade’s own framing is worth savoring: Deadline writes the movie “looks to eradicate all superhero fatigue.”
More on that below.
The Numbers
Domestically, research firm NRG sees a $195 million opening at 4,300 theaters, which would beat Toy Story 5 for the best start of 2026 and lands right on top of the $180 million to $190 million tracking we reported.
Rival studios are even more bullish, with some believing the number lands closer to $250 million.
North American presales stand at $80 million, right alongside the $78 million No Way Home logged before its record start, just as the presale numbers have signaled for weeks.
Internationally, the forecast sits around $270 million, comping to the $233.3 million foreign bow of Deadpool & Wolverine.
Among all post-Covid global openings, $465 million would rank third behind only No Way Home and Zootopia 2, ahead of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Deadpool & Wolverine, and Avatar: The Way of Water.
The China And IMAX Wrinkle
Here’s a detail that changes the math: China never played No Way Home, meaning no one there has legally seen a Holland Spider-Man movie since Far From Home did a reported $199 million in 2019.
The China projection is $45 million, which by itself would top the entire Chinese run of Toy Story 5. (See the update above: day one alone nearly cleared that number.)
And while Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey holds IMAX across most of the world, there’s a loophole: Spidey gets IMAX screens in China, Japan, and Korea, the territories where The Odyssey doesn’t have them locked.
Deadline also notes an audience wrinkle working in the movie’s favor: women under 25, usually the last demographic to show up for a Marvel movie, are expected in force, credited to Zendaya and the addition of Stranger Things star Sadie Sink.
The Fatigue Obituary, Written By The Trades
Read that Deadline line again: the movie “looks to eradicate all superhero fatigue.”
That’s the same trade press that spent three years writing eulogies for the genre, now casually conceding the audience is showing up with near-record money.
We’ve been saying it all along: the fatigue was never real. The audience got selective, and when the product looks worth seeing, the money shows up.
To be fair to the forecast, Deadline hedges with real caveats: this isn’t a three-Spider-Men event like No Way Home, and box office sources have a history of over-projecting nine-figure openings. The floor is still the biggest opening of the year.
The Rollout
The wave starts Wednesday, with the movie opening in China, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, the same day as the one-night Prime early screenings stateside.
North American previews start at noon Thursday, alongside Australia, India, and Saudi Arabia, with Japan and the U.S. wide release closing it out Friday.
By Sunday, the fatigue debate gets settled with a number.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day opens July 31. For everything on the movie, check out our complete Brand New Day guide.
