UPDATE: The American courtroom just answered back. Two days after Europe said yes, Paramount agreed to freeze the merger until a trial verdict, as late as June 2027. The August 3 hearing is cancelled.
The whole world keeps saying yes to this deal. Europe just made it official.
The European Commission on Tuesday cleared the $110 billion Paramount-Warner Bros. merger, with conditions.
That was the last big international hurdle.
The Condition, In Plain English
Paramount runs a movie distribution partnership in Europe with Universal called UIP.
Add Warner Bros.’ movies to that pipeline, and one operation controls too much of what plays in European theaters, which means squeezing cinemas on terms.
So Europe’s price: Paramount quits UIP within 13 months, and can’t team back up with Universal there for 10 years.
On everything else, regulators found plenty of competition left, from Disney and Sony to Amazon and A24.
The Scoreboard
Remember when we noted Paramount’s victory-lap map had holes in it? The biggest hole just filled in.
The DOJ said yes. Australia, Brazil, China, South Korea, and a dozen more said yes. Now Europe.
Still open: the UK, where the government is “minded to intervene” and answers by August 7, and the FCC’s review of the deal’s foreign money.
And then there’s the big one: the American courtroom.
The Irony
Europe’s approval landed on July 22. That’s the exact day Paramount once circled as the earliest it could close.
Instead, the deal sits frozen, because a judge paused it Monday.
(Update: The August 3 injunction hearing was set to decide everything. Instead, both sides agreed to skip it and go straight to a full trial.)
The stakes got clearer today too. If this deal dies over regulatory matters, Paramount owes Warner Bros. $7 billion.
And Paramount’s $650 million-per-quarter penalty clock starts September 30.
Nobody at either company can afford to lose this case, and per my insiders, Warner Bros. can least afford it of all.
Every regulator on the planet has now voted. The only ballots left get cast in Oakland.
July 31. Circle it. That’s when the trial schedule lands.
